Betfred Oaks Tips: Take the long odds about O’Brien filly

Nine fillies go to post at Epsom on Friday afternoon (16:00) bidding to win the Betfred Oaks - the third Classic of the British flat season.

I've been tasked with sharing my Betfred Oaks tips, opting for one at a bit of a price.

Betfred 1000 Guineas heroine Desert Flower is unsurprisingly a warm order for the Betfred Oaks.

Charlie Appleby's Night Of Thunder filly boasts a vastly-superior rating to all eight of her Classic rivals, and nobody should be surprised if she remains unbeaten in Surrey.

That being said, there are a few ponderables ahead of her bid to do exactly that - enough to put me off backing her at such odds.

It's uncertain how she'll cope with the step up from a mile to 1m4f, or if she'll handle the idiosyncrasies of Epsom. Also, bar Guineas fourth Elwateen, she faces entirely new rivals.

Aidan O'Brien is triple-handed against the favourite in his bid to win an 11th Betfred Oaks, with Chester winner Minnie Hauk the pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore.

I must admit, I was a little surprised by that. The form of that Cheshire Oaks is nothing to shout about as far as I'm concerned, while I thought improving stablemate Whirl was highly-impressive in the Musidora at York.

I was tempted to side with her, but Moore's desertion was enough to put me off. He doesn't get it wrong often.

The one I've eventually landed on, each-way, is WEMIGHTTAKEDLONGWAY for Aidan's son Joseph.

The daughter of Derby hero Australia was progressive at two, improving on an encouraging debut over a mile at Cork in September to beat the reopposing Minnie Hauk by two-and-a-half lengths over course and distance the following month. That was the latter's racecourse debut so the form isn't to be taken too literally, but it's interesting nonetheless.

Wemighttakedlongway's juvenile campaign concluded after a Group 3 (1m1f) at Leopardstown just over a fortnight later. She finished third of six, just two lengths behind stablemate Sigh No More and Aidan's Trinity College, who was a staying-on fourth in the French Derby at Chantilly last weekend.

Fast-forward 162 days and the selection reappeared in the G3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown as a three-year-old. She was a notable drifter before the race and indeed ran like a horse in need of the run, fading into fifth late on.

Under the circumstances, it wasn't a bad effort at all considering the winner Delacroix is currently favourite for the Betfred Derby on Saturday and the runner-up Lambourn is 10/1 after landing the Chester Vase last month. Tiberius Thunder and Puppet Master in third and fourth respectively are no mugs either.

She took a big step forward at Navan in April, making all to beat Paddy Twomey's Catalina Delcarpio, a 400k guineas purchase who dazzled on debut at Leopardstown previously, by just under three lengths.

That was on soft ground, so she won't be inconvenienced by recent rain - and I felt she was pulling clear at the line in County Meath, which suggests the extra couple of furlongs will be manageable too.

Wemighttakedlongway has every chance of making her presence felt in the Betfred Oaks on Friday.

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