Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel Prediction: Poor travellers in danger of a Hasenhuttl hiding

Holstein Kiel bolstered their bid for Bundesliga survival by beating Borussia Dortmund 4-2 on January 14 but were unable to record back-to-back victories for the first time this season as they lost 3-1 to fellow strugglers Hoffenheim last Saturday. Their next assignment, on Friday evening (19:30, Sky Sports Mix), is a tough one as they travel to take on a VFL Wolfsburg side that beat Hoffenheim (0-1) and Borussia Monchengladbach (5-1) in the space of four days this month before losing narrowly at leaders Bayern Munich (3-2) last weekend.

Below is my Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as seventh hosts 17th at the Volkswagen Arena.

Team News

Jakub Kaminski, Lovro Majer (both ankle), Niklas Klinger (wrist), Kevin Paredes (foot) and Rogerio (unspecified) remain out for Wolfsburg, who have no new injury absentees following last week's defeat in Bavaria.

Head coach Ralph Hasenhuttl could name an unchanged starting XI with his attack sure to be led by Algeria international Mohamed Amoura, who bagged a brace against Bayern to take his Bundesliga goal tally to eight in 16 appearances since joining from Belgian side Union Saint-Gilloise last summer.

Should Hasenhuttl decide to make changes, Tiago Tomas, Mattias Svanberg and Jonas Wind could come into his thinking.

Football Odds

Holstein Kiel's lengthy injury list includes Timo Becker (unspecified), David Zec (hip), Marvin Schulz (muscular) and Colin Kleine-Bekel (knee), while Patrick Erras is still suffering from concussion.

Former Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham midfielder Lewis Holtby will serve the second of a three-game ban for the red card he received against Dortmund earlier this month while Lasse Rosenboom and Marco Komenda are doubts due to illness.

Croatian defender Ivan Nekic could make his debut for the club after joining from NK Varadzin earlier this week. American full-back John Tolkin, who was Kiel's first addition of the winter window from the New York Red Bulls, was an unused substitute against Hoffenheim last Saturday and is also looking to earn his first minutes in his new colours.

Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel Odds

Wolfsburg have won six of their last nine Bundesliga games and three of their last four at home so their odds of 2/5, implying a win probability of 71.4%, on Friday are hardly surprising. Kiel are appropriately priced at 6/1 (14.3%) given the 16-point gap between the sides and the fact that they are yet to win on their travels, with only stragglers VFL Bochum (one) picking up fewer points away from home than Die Storche (two).

The draw is priced at 4/1, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Wolfsburg & Yes @ 7/4

Wolfsburg started the season off poorly in front of their own fans, winning just one of their first seven games at Volkswagen Arena, but they've picked up there in the last couple of months, winning three of their last four at home and thrashing Monchengladbach 5-1 there earlier this month.

Kiel, meanwhile, are yet to win away from home since gaining promotion to the Bundesliga last year, losing six of their eight travel games including their last five. They've shown improvements in recent weeks, winning two of their last three matches, but both victories were on home soil.

Despite their struggles on the road, Die Storche have scored in every away game, and they are the only club in this season's Bundesliga to see BTTS - Yes land in 100 per cent of their away outings.

Wolfsburg are top of the BTTS home table with 89 per cent (nine) of their 11 league matches at the Volkswagen Arena seeing both teams score, so the scene is set for goals in Friday's fixture.

While I see Kiel getting on the scoresheet, I fancy Wolfsburg to pull clear and claim all three points. Die Wolfe have won six of their last nine games in the German top flight, only failing to beat Freiburg (3-2), Dortmund (1-3) and Bayern (3-2) in that run, and backing Wolfsburg to win and both teams to score has been a winning bet four times since November - five times across the whole season.

Total Goals - Over 4.5 @ 3/1

Wolfsburg and Kiel games are averaging four goals this season with both teams having witnessed 72 after 18 matches played, although the goals are weighted more favorably in the former's direction (40 scored, 32 conceded) compared to the latter (26 scored, 46 conceded).

Unsurprisingly, the two sides are averaging more goals per game than any other in the Bundesliga, while only Bayern (50 per cent) and Wolfsburg (44 per cent) have been involved in a higher percentage of over 4.5 goals contests than Kiel (39 per cent).

There have been at least five goals scored in Wolfsburg's last two league matches and five of their last seven, while it's four in the last five for Kiel.

Only two goals were scored in August's reverse fixture between the sides as Wolfsburg ran out 2-0 winners, but at the Volkswagen Arena, I'm expecting Hasenhuttl's side to hit a few past their lower-ranked opponents, having struck five against Monchengladbach last time out on home soil and four there against Mainz early last month.

Over 4.5 total goals looks like an enticing play at 3/1 on Friday.

Offers

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