Willem II vs Telstar Prediction: Penalties beckon in Eredivisie promotion/relegation decider

Willem II and Telstar played out a 2-2 draw in the first leg of their Eredivisie promotion/relegation play-off final on Thursday, with both sides dropping a lead. Telstar fell behind in the 14th minute to a strike from Ringo Meerveld, but were 2-1 in front by the 65th minute thanks to an own-goal from Runar Sigurgeirsson and an effort from leading marksman Youssef El Kachati.

However, the visitors equalised in the 81st minute courtesy of second-half substitute Emilio Kehrer, setting up a fascinating second leg at the Konin Willem II Stadion in Tilburg on Sunday (17:00). Below are my Willem II vs Telstar predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this huge clash in the Netherlands.

Team News

Dani Mathieu (knee), Khaled Razak and Mickael Tirpan (both unspecified) are expected to miss out again for Willem II, whose head coach Kristof Aelbrecht must decide whether to hand a start to Kehrer, who scored within 10 minutes of his introduction at the 711 Stadium in Thursday's first leg.

Football Odds

Nick Doodeman made way for Kehrer in Velsen-Zuid, and he could be demoted to the bench this weekend.

As suspected, Telstar forward Soufiane Hetli (unspecified) missed Thursday's first leg, and he's expected to sit out Sunday's contest, too.

Jayden Turfkruier came on at the start of the second half for Dewon Koswal and must be under consideration to replace him in the starting XI this weekend.

Willem II vs Telstar Odds

Eredivisie outfit Willem II are favourites to claim victory in regulation time, with odds of 9/10 implying a 52.6% probability of success, while Eerste Divisie side Telstar are 3/1, or a 25% chance, to triumph without needing extra time.

Another draw between the pair, which would send the tie to another 30 minutes, can be backed at 12/5, and both teams to score at 8/11.

Meanwhile, a repeat of Thursday's 2-2 scoreline is priced at 12/1.

Anytime Goalscorer - Youssef El Kachati (TEL) @ 7/4

Same again, please.

I successfully backed El Kachati to score at any time in the first leg at 6/5, and with Telstar now playing away, we get more for our money here, as the implied probability drops from 45.5% to 36.4%.

While a drop is always expected in a reverse fixture, I think the price offered is on the slightly generous side given Willem II's awful defensive record and El Kachati's red-hot form in front of goal.

Sunday's hosts haven't kept a clean sheet since December 13, and have conceded 2+ goals in five of their last six games.

El Kachati, meanwhile, scored his 23rd goal of the season on Thursday and made it eight in his last nine appearances.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Draw & Yes @ 7/2

Willem II and Telstar couldn't be separated in the first leg, with four goals shared between the two sides. The stalemate was Willem II's second in their last four games, while Telstar's last three have ended level after regulation time.

Both teams recovered from losing positions earlier in the week, highlighting the spirit of both camps, and with a place in next season's Eredivisie on the line, neither will be content to let this opportunity pass them by.

BTTS - Yes has landed in Willem II's last seven matches, and nine of their last 10, while it's been a winning selection in Telstar's last two, so I can see more goals in this game, but I think we're headed for extra time, and potentially penalties in Tilburg.

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