Western United vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: MVC can get back on track in familiar surroundings

Western United ended their wait for an Australia A-League Men's win in last weekend's 'Unite Round' as they beat Perth Glory 3-1 at Sydney FC's Allianz Stadium. Meanwhile, Melbourne Victory's undefeated start to the campaign came to a close last time out as they were edged out 1-0 by Wellington Phoenix.

The two sides face off at AAMI Park on Sunday (05:00, TNT Sports 3) and ahead of the match, you can check out my Western United vs Melbourne Victory prediction below, featuring team news and tips.

Team News

Western United midfielder Sebastian Pasquali has been ruled out of Sunday's clash after scans revealed he suffered a fractured fibula following a heavy challenge in the first half of last week's win. The 25-year-old was forced from the field in the 43rd minute against the Glory with Rhys Bozinovski taking his place, and that could be a change made by head coach John Aloisi this weekend.

Khode Kaddour and James Donachie are both still in the treatment room for Western United but Aloisi's options are bolstered by the returns to fitness of Japanese defender Tomoki Imai and Australian forward Oli Lavale.

Teenager defender Dylan Leonard, who scored United's equaliser last Friday, is suspended after being sent off in the dying embers, however.

Football Odds

Nishan Velupillay will miss a second successive match for Melbourne Victory as he continues his recovery from an injury picked up on international duty with Australia earlier this month, but otherwise, boss Patrick Kisnorbo has a fully fit squad to choose from.

Last Sunday's defeat may lead to a couple of changes to the former Leeds United defender's starting XI, though.

Fabian Monge, Reno Piscopo, Joshua Rawlins, Jing Reec and Bruno Fornaroli are all vying for starts, with Piscopo the most likely to come in after beginning Victory's first four games of the season.

Western United vs Melbourne Victory Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Western United vs Melbourne Victory page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Western United are 100/30 to make it back-to-back victories on Sunday, giving Aloisi's side an implied win probability of 23.1%, while Victory are 4/6, or a 60% chance, to return to winning ways.

The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 3.5 total goals at 13/8.

Fornaroli (1/1) and fellow Victory forward Nikos Vergos (13/10) are shortest priced in the anytime goalscorer market, where Western United striker Hiroshi Ibusuki (21/10) can be backed to follow up last weekend's brace with a strike on Sunday.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Melbourne Victory & Under 3.5 Goals @ 6/4

Victory hit a first bump in the road last Sunday as they lost 1-0 to 2023/24 Premiership runners-up Wellington Phoenix, who have become something of a bogey team for them over the last 18 months, failing to win any of their last six head-to-heads in regulation time.

They don't have a particularly good recent record against this weekend's opponents, Western United, either, beating them just once in their last six meetings. However, Victory had the upper hand last season as they avoided defeat, beating United 2-1 in February and drawing 2-2 with them the following month. Both matches were played at their home stadium, AAMI Park, which is again the venue for United's home fixture in this Melbourne derby as Ironbark Fields is still considered unsuitable to host such an occasion.

United, therefore, lost home advantage, playing further into Victory's hands, as if they didn't need further help with a superior squad.

That doesn't mean Victory will coast to success this weekend, with United proving to be a stubborn opponent this season. The Western Melbourne club drew their first two games of the season 1-1 with Wellington Phoenix and Western Sydney Wanderers before suffering narrow defeats to Melbourne City (0-1) and Adelaide United (2-1), the first at AAMI Park and the second at Coopers Stadium.

United also came from behind to beat Perth Glory 3-1 last week, so they should be full of confidence after getting their first three points on board.

Nevertheless, I expect Victory to bounce back from their first league loss of the season and show their quality in familiar surroundings.

Velupillay is a big miss for Kisnorbo's side but they still have the likes of Zinedine Machach and Daniel Arzanu who can produce something out of nothing in the final third, so I have few concerns that they can produce this weekend.

It may not be a game full of goals - four of MVC's five league games this term have produced three or fewer strikes, the same as Western United - but I'm siding with the East Melbourners to come through the other side with a win.

Most Corners - Western United @ 8/5

This looks like a decent price to me considering Western United (4.6) are averaging more corners per game than Victory (4.4) this season and won the corner count 9-6 in their latest head-to-head in March.

United have taken the most corners in three of their contests this term - against Wellington Phoenix, Western Sydney Wanderers and Perth Glory - while Victory have lost the corner count three times - against Central Coast Mariners, Melbourne City and Brisbane Roar.

I think there's a good chance that MVC will be leading by the final third of the game, which could lead to them bunkering in and United pushing further upfield to force an equaliser. This should create the conditions for more corners for Aloisi's side, which would help to land the above selection.

Offers

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