Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City Prediction: Another high-scoring City contest?

 | 19th April | 

4 mins read

Western Sydney Wanderers can confirm a top-six finish in the Australian A-League Men's on Saturday at the expense of their opponents, Melbourne City, who need a win at CommBank Stadium to overtake Marko Rudan's side ahead of the regular season finale next week.

If you're in the UK, you can watch this potential top-six decider live on TNT Sports 3 at 06:30, and you can read below to find out our Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City prediction.

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City Betting Tips

  • Over 3.5 goals @ 11/8
  • Dylan Pierias to score anytime @ 7/2

The Wanderers should have been home and hosed ahead of next month's A-League Men's finals, but back-to-back 2-1 defeats against Brisbane Roar and Sydney FC has left them looking precariously over their shoulder as Melbourne City come to town on Saturday.

Last season's Premiers champions have endured a dismal 2023/24 campaign, with a poor start culminating in the dismissal of Rado Vidosic in November. Vidosic was replaced by Aurelio Vidmar, who has overseen a mixed bag of results since taking the reins.

A 7-0 win over the Wanderers in Melbourne last month is possibly the highlight so far, though City did actually go one better last Sunday as they thrashed Perth Glory 8-0 at AAMI Park.

The last time these sides met at CommBank Stadium, however, during January's 'Unite Round' in Sydney, WSW emerged victorious as a first-half strike from Dylan Pierias proved to be the only goal of the game.

Team News

The hosts have two players on international duty at the AFC U23 Asian Cup, with Lachlan Brook and Nicolas Milanovic both called up by the Olyroos. Their absences were keenly felt in the Sydney derby, where WSW also lost Tom Beadling and Brandon Borrello to injury.

Borrello's replacement, Zachary Sapsford, scored what he thought was a dramatic late equaliser against their bitter rivals before Sydney FC's Jaide Kucharski fired straight back. Sapsford's strike, however, should be enough to see him start on Saturday, possibly alongside Marcus Antonsson, who hasn't scored in his last 13 appearances, with Rudan's pool of players limited.

Sonny Kittel could come in from the start as Rudan looks to take the Wanderers out of their winless run.

Melbourne City sought to mitigate the departure of Callum Talbot to the Olyroos squad by moving midfielder Steven Ugarkovic to right-back against Perth Glory, and it was a successful decision that is likely to be replicated in Sydney.

Scott Galloway's knee injury continues to keep him out of action and he will be joined on the sidelines once again by Andrew Nabbout, who last featured against the Wanderers on March 12.

Match Odds

Western Sydney Wanderers are 21/10 to break out of a six-game winless run at CommBank Stadium, though they did win there as the 'away' team against Melbourne City during that period. Those odds hand them an implied win probability of 32.3%, while the visitors can be backed at 1/1, giving them a 50% chance.

The draw is available at 5/2, both teams to score at 1/2 and over 3.5 goals at 11/8.

Over 3.5 goals @ 11/8

There were seven goals when the sides met last month - all in favour of Melbourne City - and while I don't think we can expect quite so many goals this time around, there should still be plenty to keep viewers entertained.

Five of the last seven meetings have ended with at least five goals scored, while only Perth Glory (10) and Adelaide United (nine) have been involved in more games with over 4.5 goals than Melbourne City (eight).

Meanwhile, three of WSW's last four home matches have seen the over 4.5 goals selection land, and they certainly look vulnerable defensively after failing to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 and conceding 20 across their last six.

Over 3.5 goals in Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City at 11-8

Dylan Pierias to score anytime @ 7/2

Melbourne City players, it seems, dominate the anytime scorer odds, and perhaps that's fair after an eight-goal drubbing of Perth Glory last time out.

Heading into that fixture, though, the sides were equal in terms of goals scored. Therefore, I feel there is value to be had in backing a Wanderers man to find the net on Saturday.

I'm not prepared to stick my neck out on Antonsson to break out of his barren run, particularly at 9/5. You have to go all the way down to Sonny Kittel at 11/4 to find the next Wanderer, and he didn't even start last time out.

Instead, I'd prefer to suggest Pierias, who scored as a starter in the last head-to-head at CommBank Stadium. That was just his second goal of the campaign, but he added a third as a substitute against Brisbane Roar in WSW's last home match.

The 24-year-old was subsequently rewarded with a start in the Sydney derby and he lasted the duration, something which couldn't be said for Antonsson or Milos Ninkovic.

Dylan Pierias to score anytime in Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City at 7-2

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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