West Brom vs Southampton Prediction: Saints good value for away win

West Brom and Southampton meet at the Hawthorns on Sunday afternoon, looking to gain an advantage in the first leg of this tense Championship play-off semi-final. Kick-off for this one is at 14:15, with the game live on Sky Sports Main Event, and both Russell Martin and Carlos Corberan know the importance of trying to get some sort of lead before they head to St Mary’s on Friday night. 

Below you can find my West Brom vs Southampton prediction, featuring betting tips and team news. 

Team News

West Brom manager Corberan must decide who leads the line for this one, with Brandon Thomas-Asante the most likely candidate at this moment in time. Having played a good portion of the season without a natural striker, Jed Wallace may be unlucky to miss out up top, but he is far more effective on the right wing. Josh Maja is also returning from injury to boost Corberan’s attacking options. Daryl Dike and Jayson Molumby remain long-term absentees.

Southampton will be without their number one goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu for this play-off campaign, and the experienced Alex McCarthy will start in his place. Che Adams came off with a knock on the final day, while £10m summer signing Ross Stewart is finally returning to fitness and could feature in this semi-final, but only from the bench.

West Brom vs Southampton Odds

West Brom are the slight underdogs for this one, priced at 8/5 to win compared to Southampton’s 9/5. A draw can be backed at 11/5, BTTS is 8/11 and Adam Armstrong is 5/1 to score first. 

Southampton to win and under 3.5 goals @ 11/5

Now I am incredibly wary of West Brom, and Corberan’s defensive prowess. Only Ipswich (54), Leeds (53) and Leicester (52) won more points at home in the second tier than WBA did this season (49), while the Baggies’ 15 home wins was their highest total in a single league campaign since 2009/10. 

I know West Brom are far stronger at home than they are away, but I also believe that Southampton are the team to beat in these play-offs. Martin’s men had a little wobble as they lost to Cardiff and Leicester, but they bounced back with a wonderful away win at Leeds on the final day. 

The way they play, dominating possession, allows them to have full control of football matches and I think they will be able to strangle West Brom on their own ground. Importantly, the Saints have already beaten the Baggies home and away this term, and Corberan’s side couldn’t get near them in the 2-0 victory at the Hawthorns. I’m happy to back quality over defensive solidity on this occasion, but I don’t think it will be a game that is full of goals so will add under 3.5 goals to this selection.

HT/FT - Southampton/Southampton @ 16/5

Saints are good, and they have a trend of taking a lead into the half-time break. They led 2-1 at Leeds at half-time, were beating Cardiff at half-time before that injury-time collapse, were 3-0 up against Preston at the break and were also leading Watford and Coventry after 45 minutes. 

That means they have led at half-time in five of their last seven matches to round off the season, and they went on to win four of those - with Cardiff being the only exception. I’m happy to write that one off as a complete fluke, and so the value in this play-off semi-final lies with backing Saints to lead at the break, and hold onto that match. Martin’s style means that it is so difficult to get the ball off his team, especially when they hold the lead. 

Check out our other Football Betting Tips here.