Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory Prediction: Piper to poach again

A 1-0 defeat at Auckland FC last Sunday sealed a second consecutive wooden spoon for Perth Glory, who have lost four of their last five games. On Sunday (13:00, TNT Sports 1), they face one final test before the season's end, as they travel to New Zealand to take on Wellington Phoenix at Sky Stadium. The game was originally scheduled for Friday but was moved due to adverse weather conditions in Wellington, which delayed Glory's flight from Auckland, where they played last weekend.

Below are my Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Luke Brooke Smith, 16, is pushing for his fourth start of the season for Wellington Phoenix, who could also hand minutes to 17-year-old Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues.

"Gab was great last week in the academy [and] I want to reward him,” head coach Giancarlo Italiano told the media on Thursday. “Whether he starts or not, that’s a different question, but I’d like to give him some game time.

“Gab and some of the other boys have been getting more minutes in the academy to build their loading in their legs."

Football Odds

Defenders Sam Sutton and Scott Wootton will play their farewell match on Sunday, but Italiano has no plans to drop either from the starting XI that lost 1-0 at Brisbane Roar last Saturday.

“I’ll play the best team that’s available," said Italiano. "Where they go next season is none of my business and it’s got nothing to do with my decision-making."

Italiano will be forced to make at least one change to his starting XI as New Zealand right-back Tim Payne misses out on his side's season finale due to injury, joining Alby Kelly-Heald (shoulder), Stefan Colakovski and Chico Geraldes (both knee) in the treatment room.

Perth Glory boss David Zdrilic has reported minor niggles to several members of his squad that played in last Sunday's 1-0 defeat at Auckland, but the 51-year-old is hopeful they will be fit to feature this weekend.

Zdrilic also suggested that academy graduate Sebastian Despotovski could earn an ALM debut.

“There’s always a chance,” he said. “It’s been great for him to be here, not just being part of the first team, but experiencing what it’s like to travel away and stay away in this environment.

“We want to give the young guys every opportunity to progress from the academy into the first team.

David Williams (knee), Lachie Wales (Achilles), Zach Lisolajski (ankle), Pat Wood and Nicholas Pennington (both unspecified) are all out injured, however.

Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory Odds

Wellington are 23/20 to break out of a three-game winless run and beat Glory, implying a 46.5% probability, while the visitors are 9/5, or a 35.7% chance, to record a first victory on their travels since December 21.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 1/2, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Match Result & Both Teams To Score - Wellington Phoenix & Yes @ 13/5

ALM stragglers Glory cannot improve their bottom-place standing, while the Nix are assured of a top-11 finish but appear unlikely to catch Central Coast Mariners in 10th, with the Gosford club needing to lose or draw against Brisbane Roar for Italiano's side to stand a chance of overtaking them.

Therefore, we should see an open, fairly entertaining contest, which isn't a regular occurrence for the Nix or Glory, who are the second-lowest (27 goals) and lowest (20) scorers, respectively, in the league this season.

I'm expecting opportunities to be handed to several young players, who should play with a degree of freedom that could result in goals for both sides.

Both teams to score has actually been more frequent for Glory and the Nix in recent months; five of the former's last six games have seen BTTS - Yes land, with Zdrilic's charges losing four of those matches.

For Wellington, it's six in the last seven, and they've avoided defeat in half (W1, D2, L3).

The Nix have failed to hit the heights of last season when they finished runners-up to Premiership winners Central Coast Mariners, and they've been particularly poor on home soil, winning just once - and not since December 28 v Newcastle Jets (2-1).

However, while they've failed to win any of their last seven at Sky Stadium, they've at least drawn four of their last six, and their three defeats at home this calendar year have all been by one-goal margins against teams in the top six.

Glory, meanwhile, have lost four of their last five games, and have suffered five consecutive defeats on their travels. They've won just once away from home this season, and that was a 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Brisbane Roar on December 21.

The Nix beat Glory 2-0 at HBF Park in October's reverse fixture thanks to a strike each from Wootton and Payne, and I expect Italiano's side to do the double over Zdrilic's charges, although the visitors can at least grab a goal as a consolation.

Anytime Goalscorer - Corban Piper (WEL) @ 5/1

Corban Piper, who joined Wellington on a scholarship deal heading into 2024/25, has enjoyed an impressive first professional campaign with the club, making 21 appearances and scoring three goals - only Nix legend Kosta Barbarouses (10) has found the net more times this season.

The 22-year-old, whose performances were rewarded with a new two-year contract earlier this week, has been deployed in several different positions by Italiano, but a lot of his minutes have come as a right-sided defender, making his goalscoring statistics even more impressive.

All three of Piper's goals have come this calendar year, with two arriving in his last five games. He didn't manage to get on the scoresheet in Brisbane last Saturday, but he forced Roar goalkeeper Matthew Action into a save with a 67th-minute effort, the fourth time in his last five appearances that he had registered a shot on target.

Hopefully, he will be fielded further forward on Sunday, which would only increase my belief that he can grab his fourth goal of the season.

Piper's only shown himself to be a threat from set-pieces, so I think 5/1 for him to score anytime is a bit of a steal.

Offers

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