Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: A sixth-straight H2H with U2.5 goals

Last season's Premiership runners-up Wellington Phoenix take on Melbourne Victory in the Australian A-League Men's on Sunday (02:30, TNT Sports 4), with three points separating the sides after four rounds of fixtures. Victory, who finished third in 2023/24, lead the standings heading into the weekend after taking 10 points from their first four games, and Patrick Kisnorbo will be hoping his side can keep up their unbeaten run going into December.

Below you can find my Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Unite Round fixture at Allianz Stadium, Sydney.

Team News

Wellington Phoenix are still without injured 19-year-old defender Lukas Kelly-Heald, who hasn't featured in their last two matchday squads. The teenager is joined in the treatment room by experienced right-back Tim Payne, who wasn't fit enough to play for New Zealand in their November internationals and won't be able to return to action this weekend.

Corban Piper was the only defender named on the Nix's bench in their 3-0 victory over reigning Premiership champions Central Coast Mariners in Gosford last time out, making the 22-year-old a viable candidate to replace Payne in the starting XI, although head coach Giancarlo Italiano could call on more experienced options like Mohamed Al-Taay or Marco Rojas and reshuffle his pack.

Football Odds

Melbourne Victory are impacted by the absence of Australia international Nishan Velupillay, who opened the scoring in his side's 2-0 win over Brisbane Roar on November 9 before suffering an injury in the Socceroos' goalless draw with Saudi Arabia five days later.

Daniel Arzani is likely to replace the 23-year-old and join Zinedine Machach and Rene Piscopo in an attacking trio behind Greek centre-forward Nikos Vergos.

Last season's top scorer Bruno Fornaroli has sat out Victory's last three games, the last two of which he watched from the stands, but Velupillay's injury should give the 37-year-old a chance to return to the matchday squad.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Wellington Phoenix are 11/4 to record back-to-back triumphs, giving the New Zealanders an implied win probability of 26.7%, while Melbourne Victory are 5/6, or a 54.5% chance, to make it four wins on the spin.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/6.

Fornaroli (6/5) and Vergos (8/5) lead the anytime goalscorer market with Kosta Barbarouses (9/4) first up for the Nix.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 5/6

Not the most exciting selection ever, but considering the record of these two teams and the fact we get just under EVS here, it's a bet worth taking on, in my opinion.

There have been two or fewer goals in the last five head-to-heads, all of which took place last season. They faced each other three times in the regular ALM season, playing out a couple of 1-1 draws - the first in Melbourne (November 2023) and the second in Wellington (January) - before the Nix edged the third game 1-0 at Sky Stadium in April.

The two sides then faced each other in the play-offs with the first leg at AAMI Park ending in a goalless stalemate and the reverse leg 1-1 in New Zealand. The semi-final was decided in extra-time at Sky Stadium as Chris Ikonomidis - now at Macarthur - scored the winner in the 102nd minute to send Victory to the Grand Final.

Kisnorbo took charge of Victory in the off-season and has carried on where Tony Popovic left off, with the Melbourne club claiming the third-best defensive record in the 2023/24 regular season - only the Nix (26) and the Mariners (27) conceded fewer than their tally of 33.

In eight games across the Australia Cup and the ALM - four in each - Victory have conceded just three times, keeping five clean sheets, including two in the league (v CCM and Brisbane Roar). Half (four) of those contests have seen two or fewer goals scored, including all coming in their last six. The most recent two were in the ALM as they held CCM to a goalless draw in Gosford in round one before beating the Roar 2-0 at AAMI Park last time out.

Like Victory, the Nix have a couple of ALM clean sheets to their name this season, keeping out both Perth Glory and CCM, beating the two teams 2-0 and 3-0 away from home, respectively. Their success over the Glory was the second of three league games that have finished with under 2.5 goals - the first being an opening-round 1-1 draw with Western United at Sky Stadium on November 20 and the third being a 2-0 defeat to Auckland at the same venue 13 days later.

Victory's attacking options have been depleted by the injury sustained by Velupillay, who has scored two of their seven league goals so far, while Wellington, despite putting three past the Mariners last time out, aren't known for running up the score, netting just 42 times in the ALM last season - only 10th-placed Newcastle Jets (39) and 11th-placed Western United (36) managed fewer.

Under 2.5 total goals looks like a sensible selection this Sunday.

Correct Score - Draw 1-1 @ 6/1

Three of the five meetings between these two teams last season ended 1-1 in regulation time so I think we're getting good value by backing the same scoreline at 6/1 on Sunday.

Victory are yet to be involved in a 1-1 this term but experienced that scoreline nine times in 2023/24 - seven times in the regular season and twice in the play-offs. Remarkably, they drew 1-1 four games in a row at the beginning of the calendar year, starting on January 13 against CCM and ending on February 3 against the Jets with a couple of contests against the Nix and Sydney in between.

Wellington drew 1-1 five times in the ALM last season - four in the regular season and once in the play-offs - and started the current campaign by exchanging a goal apiece with Western United.

It was the Nix's away form last season that let them down in the race for the Premiership title as both CCM (26) and Western Sydney Wanderers (23) collected more points on their travels than Italiano's side (21 - level with Macarthur having played a game more than the Bulls).

However, the Nix have won both ALM games away from Wellington this season and now face a Victory side, who haven't won away from Melbourne in the league, on neutral ground in Sydney.

A 1-1 would probably be acceptable for both sides and I like the price of 6/1 for that scoreline to rear its head again between these two teams on Sunday.

Offers

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