Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland Prediction: Kosta the Kiwi to keep cool in ALM’s first NZ derby

A new rivalry is loading in the Australian A-League Men's, but this one hails from New Zealand as Wellington Phoenix and Auckland FC prepare to do battle for the first time since the latter's formation earlier this year. The Nix and Black Knights go at it in Wellington on Saturday (04:00, TNT Sports 5), with the visitors looking to keep up their perfect record this season.

Below you can find my Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of New Zealand's maiden A-League 'derby'.

Team News

Wellington Phoenix head coach Giancarlo Italiano has suffered a big blow to his derby day plans with captain Alex Rufer ruled out through injury. The New Zealand international joins Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues and Lukas Kelly-Heald in the treatment room, while Luke Brooke-Smith and Xuan Loke have been omitted from the long list.

There's good news over off-season arrivals Paulo Retre and Marco Rojas, though, as the pair are named in an A-League squad for the first time this season. Experienced Englishman David Ball is also in the reckoning after being left out of the squad for last week's 2-0 win over Perth Glory.

Football Odds

Max Mata was a late substitute in Auckland's first two games, a 2-0 victory over Brisbane Roar and a 1-0 win against Sydney, but the 24-year-old isn't in the 20-man squad this time around. Luis Toomey has taken the New Zealander's spot.

Saturday marks the return to Wellington of Alex Paulsen, who was named A-League Men's Goalkeeper of the Year and shared the Young Football of the Year award with Nestory Irankunda, for his heroics in a Nix shirt last season. The 22-year-old subsequently left for English Premier League side AFC Bournemouth before joining Auckland on loan, where he has secured back-to-back clean sheets.

Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Wellington Phoenix are 7/5 to triumph in the first professional football derby in New Zealand history, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 41.7%. Auckland, meanwhile, are 8/5, or a 38.5% chance, to maintain their perfect record by taking all three points.

The draw is priced at 23/10, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/6.

The Nix's Kosta Barbarouses (6/4) heads the anytime goalscorer market with Auckland's Guillermo May (9/5) just behind.

Double Chance & Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals - Wellington Phoenix or Draw & Under 2.5 @ 13/8

Wellington finished as runners-up in the Australian A-League Men's last season, just two points behind winners Central Coast Mariners. The Nix were far from prolific scorers, however, as eight clubs - including wooden spooners Perth Glory - bettered their goal tally of 42.

It was Wellington's backline that served them well as they recorded the best defensive record in the league, conceding just 26 times in 27 games.

It's little surprise, then, to see that 52 per cent (15) of their A-League games (including play-offs) ended with under 2.5 total goals.

They've begun the current campaign in a similar fashion, with both league matches - a 1-1 draw with Western United and a 2-0 win at Perth Glory - seeing exactly two goals scored, while their Australia Cup defeat at South Melbourne on August 6 also featured under 2.5 total goals as the lower-league hosts ran out 1-0 winners.

Auckland, meanwhile, have started life in the A-League with two low-scoring wins, following up a 2-0 victory over Brisbane Roar with a 1-0 triumph against Sydney. Nando Pijnaker's winner in the latter only arrived in the seventh minute of second-half stoppage time, too.

I can see this being a cagey contest in Wellington, where cards might outnumber goals.

Anytime Goalscorer - Kosta Barbarouses (WEL) @ 8/5

Wellington-born Barbarouses was the top-scoring New Zealander in the Australian A-League Men's last season with 13 goals and he is already off the mark this term having struck an opener for the Nix in their 1-1 draw with Western United.

The 34-year-old was unable to add to his tally last week, despite his side scoring twice in Perth, but you can be sure that he will be fired up to get back in the goals against Auckland.

Only three other Nix players - Bozhidar Kraev, Oskar Zawada (both six) and Benjamin Old (five) - scored more than three league goals last season, and all three have since departed the club, making Barbarouses the obvious shout for the hosts in the anytime goalscorer market.

The Black Knights, meanwhile, are yet to concede in their maiden A-League campaign but both of their contests so far have been at home, and they should find things much tougher in Wellington, where Barbarouses will be looking to pounce on any vulnerabilities.

Offers

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