Serie A Betting Tips: Best Bets for Matchday 18

 | December 27 | 

4 mins read

san siro inter ac milan scaled

With two winners from three for his Matchday 17 Best Bets column, our Italian Serie A expert Daniele Fisichella is riding a very sweet profitable streak for us here at Betfred Insights.

A rare round of games between Christmas and New Year in Italy for us this week means he's back at the keyboard to provide us with his best selections for the weekend...

Serie A Betting Tips:

  • Back Genoa over 0.5 Goals @ 8/11
  • Back Over 2.5 Goals in Lecce vs Atalanta @ 5/6
  • Back AC Milan HT/FT @ 11/10

There’s little time to enjoy panettone and prosecco as Serie A continues through the festive season. That’s a rarity for Italian football lovers who are used to the mini break at the end of December.

Will the Italian FA's choice to cram the fixtures list this winter, in order to avoid many mid-week rounds, boost Italian sides' chances to win in Europe? For now, let’s get ready for another Serie A matchday.

  • Leaders against giant killers
  • La Dea is licking her wounds
  • Rossoneri end a troublesome year.

Genoa vs Internazionale (Friday, 19:45)

Despite the absence of their key player, Serie A top goalscorer Lautaro Martinez (expected back in action in 2024), Inter provided a very convincing performance against Lecce.

If a weakness must be found to the Neroazzurri is their dependence from the Argentine striker, not only for his goalscoring skills (17 this season, and 29 in the calendar year), but also for his facility to link up and get the best of anyone who plays alongside him.

Inter have scored for 25 consecutive matches in Serie A, but Genoa will present a sterner test than Lecce whose defensive numbers so far have been deceptive (more on this later on).

In fact the Grifoni are a very dynamic and organised side, who play with the same 3-5-2 formation as Simone Inzaghi’s team, and at the Luigi Ferraris they have so far matched the quality of some of Italy’s top sides. They’ve beaten Roma, drew against Napoli and Juventus and lost to AC Milan in unlucky circumstances.

There’ll be no Mateo Retegui, but the peace of Ekuban and the ability in tight spaces of Gudmundsson might still trouble Europe’s best defence (only seven goal conceded and 12 clean sheets). The odds for the hosts to score over 0.5 goals are very appealing (8/11).

Atalanta vs Lecce (Saturday, 11:30)

The Bergamaschi were unlucky to leave the Renato Dall’Ara last Saturday with no points. They limited Bologna to only one shot on target (Lewis Ferguson’s goal) and should have taken the lead in the first half if only Ederson and Lookman had shown more composure.

In the end, it was a bad defeat that saw La Dea slipping down to eighth place.

But Atalanta, who have conceded 20 goals so far (Serie A’s 10th defence), have got a decent home record, especially against lower table sides.

Lecce on the other hand, despite being always very competitive, are still winless away from home. They’ve only won one of their last 13 games in all competitions and based on xG (expected goals) they’d be penultimate in the table: in fact they’d have conceded 10 more goals, a worrying stat for a club that last season achieved salvation at the penultimate match of the season.

Back in February the Salentini won 2-1 at the Stadio Azzurri d’Italia, but I reckon this time they won’t be able to repeat that exploit. Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 seems the most logical outcome.

AC Milan vs Sassuolo (Saturday, 17:00)

The Rossoneri squandered another two points against Salernitana in their third 2-2 draw of the season. Stefano Pioli’s men are winless in their last four away games, where they scored eight but conceded nine.

They’re unbeaten in the last three matches in all competitions but have only kept two clean sheets in the last 13 encounters.

AC Milan have seen it all in 2023: 16 defeats in all competitions, a surprisingly good Champions League run (last season), the return of Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the capacity of adviser and a myriad of players’ injuries.

Probably all Rossoneri fans wanted for Christmas is their side to show consistency.

AC Milan will play six of their next nine games at San Siro and, although there’s no hope they can win the Scudetto, they can’t just throw the season away.

Sassuolo, who won in two of their last three trips to San Siro and scored nine goals, seem to be in free fall.

In 2023, they’ve lost 28 points from a winning position (only Spurs have done worse this year with 32) and haven’t kept a single clean sheet this season.

Relegation is looming for the Neroverdi who have got the second worse away defence (17 goals conceded) and might still be without their top goalscorer Domenico Berardi.

I’d back Milan to win at HT/FT at 11/10.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...

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