Weekend EFL League 1 Predictions: Derby and Bolton to return to winning ways

We’ve got a full fixture list to look forward to across League One, as Portsmouth continue their quest for the title with a home game against Oxford United. This weekend’s EFL League 1 predictions will be tough to nail, with the top teams in Bolton Wanderers and Derby County desperate to return to winning ways after two successive defeats apiece.

Down at the bottom of the table, Carlisle will hope to follow up their fifth win of the season with another three points, as their survival hopes hang by a thread. Fleetwood Town, Port Vale and Cheltenham Town currently occupy the other relegation spots, but Reading are at risk, having played two games more than the two teams directly below them. Now we’ve set the scene, here’s some tips and predictions for this weekend’s League One fixtures. 

Bolton to beat Cambridge @ 4/7

On paper, backing a side who have lost their last two matches at this price may seem stupid. But, I’m steadfast in my belief that Bolton are one of the finest teams in the division and should finish in the top three come the end of the season. Whether they can still finish in the automatic places is up for debate, as both them and Derby continue to slip up. 

It’s worth adding some context to their two recent defeats, the most recent of which came on Tuesday night at Wigan. In that 1-0 loss, they had 11 shots and 69% possession, but just couldn’t break down their local rivals. Last weekend they were well-beaten 4-1 by Blackpool, but Ricardo Santos was sent off midway through the second half which may explain the heavy defeat. 

Back at home soil, against a side who recently lost head coach Neil Harris to Millwall, they should be able to return to winning ways. Promotion-chasing teams have to win their home games, and I expect Ian Evatt to get his team back on track here. 

Derby to beat Port Vale and over 2.5 goals @ 9/4 

Backing another side who have lost two in a row - I’d forgive you for thinking I’ve lost the plot here. However, just like Bolton, Derby are one of the top three teams in this division. The rare blip in their form, back-to-back 2-1 defeats against Barnsley and Charlton Athletic, have put the pressure back onto Paul Warne.

He is a manager who has promotion experience at this level, going up twice with Rotherham United. It’s why Derby picked him as their manager and it is during this time of the season where his calm demeanour should serve the Rams well. Importantly, Derby have scored in their last seven matches, while Port Vale have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five outings. 

Vale haven’t won in 2024, and are struggling in the relegation zone. Given their defensive woes, I believe the 9/4 on Derby to win and over 2.5 goals is well worth backing. 

Peterborough to beat Exeter and over 3.5 goals @ 12/5

Peterborough United have been difficult to place over the last month. After hunting down the top two, Darren Ferguson’s side lost four games in a row and slipped out of contention. However, they’ve responded in impressive fashion. They smashed Blackpool 3-0 in the EFL Trophy to book their place at Wembley, before following it up with a 1-0 win away at Cambridge in midweek. 

Next up, they return to London Road to host Exeter City. Gary Caldwell’s side sit 15th, and haven’t won in their last three so I believe they will find life tough again here. Posh have scored in their last seven, and are due a big home win. With the likes of Kwame Poku and Ephron Mason-Clark, they should be able to tear apart the Grecians. 

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