Weekend La Liga Predictions: A 12/5 pick headlines Mark’s Best Bets this week

 | November 30 | 

6 mins read

Our La Liga Mark Sochon expert is joining our Serie A expert in providing a weekly round-up column with his best bets away from the biggest games of the weekend.

This week is headlined by a 12/5 pick in the Girona vs Valencia game. Read on for his thoughts and selections from across Spain's top flight.

He'll be previewing Real Madrid vs Granada and Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid in detail closer to game time...

Weekend La Liga Predictions & Best Bets:

  • Back Girona to win & BTTS in Girona vs Valencia @ 12/5
  • Back Real Sociedad to win in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad @ 5/4
  • Back Over 1.5 Goals for Real Betis in Almeria vs Real Betis @ 10/11

While the clash between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid takes centre stage in Spain this weekend, there’s plenty going on elsewhere and the big game at the Estadi Olímpic will actually have no impact on who ends matchday 15 in top spot.

Surprise package Girona can reclaim 1st place when they welcome Valencia to Montilivi on Saturday. Meanwhile, the rest of the weekend schedule includes a number of pressure games for struggling coaches from Celta’s Rafa Benitez to Diego Alonso and Gaizka Garitano who are both still winless in La Liga since taking over at Sevilla and Almeria respectively in early October.

Girona vs Valencia (Saturday, 13:00)

Girona need just a point to leapfrog Real Madrid for a few hours at least, but they’ll want more than that with a big Catalan derby away to Barcelona next on their agenda.

If you’re willing to turn a blind eye to their status as part of Sheikh Mansour’s powerful City Football Group, Girona’s story is a breath of fresh air for La Liga. Comparisons are already being drawn to Leicester City’s remarkable 2015/16 Premier League triumph and they are actually six points better off than the Foxes were at the corresponding point in that season.

Benefitting from a lack of European distractions and so far steering clear of major injuries, Girona are scoring freely and playing some excellent football with wingers Savio and Viktor Tsygankov causing chaos on the flanks with good support from attack-minded full-backs.

Up against a Valencia defence that shipped five in their most recent away game at the Santiago Bernabeu, the pair should have more joy in this game, particularly if the visitors are without skipper Jose Gaya who is very influential from left back, but is a doubt for this trip.

If there is an area of weakness for Girona, it’s perhaps the defence. They were caught out at times by Athletic Bilbao’s pacey wide players in their drawn Monday night game. Meanwhile a central defensive pairing of 33 year old Daley Blind and loanee Eric Garcia, who arrived in Girona with something of an accident-prone reputation, does have its limitations.

Valencia are far from the strongest team in this league, but they’ve shown a willingness to have a go and try to play their football even in the tougher fixtures. 71% of their away games this season have seen both teams score and I like the look of Girona to win and both teams to score at 12/5 here.

Osasuna vs Real Sociedad (Saturday, 20:00)

This is a local derby, between two teams who qualified for Europe last season, but have gone in opposite directions so far this term.

Having sealed qualification on matchday four, Real Sociedad found themselves in the unexpected position of being able to rest players for their midweek Champions League home game against RB Salzburg.

It was a match they dominated, but one that ended goalless, although Imanol Alguacil will take some solace from the fact that key players like Mikel Merino and Robin Le Normand got a rest while the influential Take Kubo only featured in the final 20 minutes.

Kubo has been unplayable at times this season for the Basque side and I’d expect him to serve up some chances for the likes of Mikel Oyarzabal and Ander Barrenetxea in what may well be Real Sociedad’s strongest eleven with the possible exception of Arsenal loanee Kieran Tierney who is fighting back to full fitness following injury.

They look well capable of winning this game against an Osasuna side that hasn’t really got going this season. An uncertain summer saw them initially kicked out of the UEFA Conference League for a historical match-fixing offence, only to be reinstated, only to then exit the competition at the very first hurdle in the shape of a play-off defeat to Club Brugge.

Suddenly the feel good factor that lingered throughout an excellent 2022/23 season was gone and despite fairly limited changes to their squad over the summer, they’re just not competing anywhere near as well this term.

Their dismal record against top eight opposition is also something punters should be aware of here. They’ve lost all seven matches this season against sides currently ranked 8th or higher in La Liga and you can back 6th placed Real Sociedad to win at 5/4.

Almeria vs Real Betis (Sunday, 15:15)

There have been few safer bets this season, than backing Almeria to concede goals. They have let in more than anyone else in Europe’s big five leagues and even a change in coach has brought no end to their suffering.

Gaizka Garitano came with a reputation for getting teams organised and making them defensively sound when he agreed to take over last month. After five games, five defeats and 13 goals conceded, he might be wishing he hadn’t bothered.

With just three points on the board, Almeria are a team that appears to be heading in only one direction and that’s the Segunda Division. Garitano doesn’t seem to have any more answers than his predecessor and even a very early goal from Largie Ramazani, one of Almeria’s few bright sparks, did not put them on course for a badly needed victory at Getafe last weekend.

Real Betis may have European action on Thursday night but they do have genuine depth in attacking and midfield areas and that has been a key factor in what became a 13-match unbeaten run in all competitions with their victory over Las Palmas last time out in La Liga.

The star of the show for Betis this season has been Isco. A player who was ridiculed towards the end of his Real Madrid career for having put on a few too many pounds and had his contract mutually terminated by Sevilla only a few months into a two-year deal last December, has reinvented himself in spectacular fashion across town at Real Betis.

Looking leaner and hungrier than he has done for many years, Isco has been outstanding for Manuel Pellegrini’s team and he’ll be relishing the prospect of trying to prize open La Liga’s leakiest defence.

You can back Real Betis to score over 1.5 Goals at 10/11 in this match, tempting odds when you consider Almeria have let in two or more in every home game they’ve played this season.

You can check out all of the Football Betting Tips from the team here at Betfred Insights on our main Football page...

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