Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from Serie A for Matchday 29

It was two winners from three for our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella a week ago in his Best Bets column, which provided yet another profitable payout for those who avidly follow his tips.

For his Weekend Football Betting Tips this week, he starts off with the Friday night game and picks out two other selections from across the top-flight in Italy as he looks to continue his recent good form with his Serie A betting...

With six Italian sides playing in Europe this week the early weekend schedule offers a relegation six-pointer on Saturday (Salernitana v Lecce) and a couple of games where teams chasing qualification for next season’s continental competitions face those who are fighting to avoid the drop. But let’s start from the Friday evening clash with Bologna, Italy’s surprise package, taking the short trip to Tuscany to meet Empoli.

• Different ambitions, same needs
• European dreams are still alive
• A new era for Lazio?

Empoli vs Bologna (Friday, time: 19:45)

Empoli have recorded back-to-back defeats for the first time under Davide Nicola.

If the Tuscan outfit were a touch unlucky against Cagliari two weeks ago, last Sunday, at San Siro against AC Milan, they looked timid in the first half.

Empoli lined up with the sole Niang up-front who was not able to hold the ball enough, but after going behind they improved in the second half with the introduction of Mattia Destro and had a decent chance to equalize.

Thanks to the change on the bench, the hosts have improved in the last two months and failed to score only in two of the last nine games. However, they’re winless in three matches at the Castellani, where four of their last six encounters have produced less than three goals.

Beating Bologna looks a very hard task for a team that at home has lost, without scoring, against Juventus, Inter, Atalanta, Lazio and AC Milan.

In fact the visitors are unbeaten in their last three games on the road and have scored twice in four of the last six away games, including against top sides such as the Rossoneri, Lazio and Atalanta.

The 1-0 they suffered last Saturday against Inter was Bologna’s only defeat in the last seven games.

Eight of their last nine away matches have ended with at least three goals scored but Thiago Motta’s men are the ones who conceded fewer shots (95) to their opponents in 2024.

Bologna have never won away at Empoli (4 draws, 5 defeats) and this is probably the right time to back them at 11/10.

Monza vs Cagliari (Saturday, time: 14:00)

Thanks to 14 points collected over the last seven matches the hosts are only five points away from Napoli who, at the moment, occupy the last available place to play in Europe next season.

The Brianzoli have certainly turned the tide (they’ve won five of the last 10, as many as in the previous 18 matches) and are likely to end their season in Serie A with more points compared to a year ago (52).

But will it be enough to achieve an historical, first, qualification for the Europa Conference League?

Raffaele Palladino’s side have scored in all their last four games and at home they’ve only lost to top oppositions this campaign (Juventus, Inter, Roma and Fiorentina).

Of the six clean sheets they kept at the Stadio Brianteo four have come against teams fighting to avoid relegation (Empoli, Salernitana, Sassuolo and Verona).

Furthermore, the hosts have won their previous three games against newly-promoted sides and they drew 1-1 the reverse fixture.

Back-to-back victories have helped Cagliari coming out of the bottom three. The Sardinians are unbeaten in the last four (two on the road) but they’ve only collected seven points away from home (only Frosinone and Lecce have done worse).

Claudio Ranieri’s side have the worse scoring record (9 goals) on the road and the only times they led at the break they ended losing both away games (against Bologna and Frosinone).

Cagliari have scored more than once only in one (2-2 vs Salernitana) of their 14 away outings and it is unlikely they’ll keep a clean sheet. The odds for Monza to score over 1.5 Goals are EVENS.

Frosinone vs Lazio (Satuday, time: 19:45)

Lazio’s fourth defeat in a row has convinced Maurizio Sarri to cut short his experience in the capital.

The former Chelsea boss resigned at the beginning of the week as many believe the tensions between the manager and some of the players had become incurable.

It has been a very difficult season for Lazio who find themselves 11 points away from the fourth spot and have so far collected 15 points less compared to last season which they ended as runners-up.

The hope for the Laziali, and their interim coach Giovanni Martuscello (Sarri’s assistant), is that without Champions League football they’ll be fresher and fitter.

Last season after they got knocked out from the Conference League by AZ Alkmaar Lazio won eight of their remaining 12 Serie A matches.

However, in 2023/2024 their away from has been poor (seven defeats, including to Lecce and Salernitana, and a 0 goal difference), although they’ve found the net in all their last eight matches on the road.

Since mid-December Frosinone are the team that have collected the least points (only five) and conceded most goals (33, average 2.5 x game).

For the first time this season they newly-promoted side will beging a matchday being in the bottom three, and after their 1-0 defeat at Sassuolo last weekend (where they missed a penalty) they could remain scoreless for two matches in a row also for the first time.

Based only on the home form, the Ciociari will be saved having collected 21 points at the Benito Stirpe thanks to 23 goals scored and a 0 goal difference.

But because they’ve only kept two clean sheets all season, it is unlikely this regional derby will be a boring affair: Over 2.5 Goals pays 4/5.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...