Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from La Liga for MD26

Matchday 25 was nice and profitable for our Spanish Football expert in his Best Bets column, with two winners from the three put up.

As always, this weekend he has picked out his top picks from across Spain's top-flight to provide his Weekend La Liga Betting Tips...

The return of Sergio Ramos to the Santiago Bernabéu and a huge relegation six-pointer in Cadiz are among the things to look out for on matchday 26 in La Liga.

We’ve also got winless Almeria hoping to upset Atlético Madrid while 2nd placed Girona are hoping to bounce back from successive defeats against Rayo Vallecano on Monday night.

Real Sociedad vs Villarreal (Friday 20:00)

Things get underway in San Sebastián on Friday night with a meeting between two teams who were fighting for 4th place last season. Both have fallen back this term, Villarreal more drastically than Real Sociedad, but there are signs at last that the Yellow Submarine are beginning to find their feet again.

Weakened by some big summer departures, Villarreal struggled badly in the first half of the season. Quique Setién and Pacheta were both sacked with Marcelino returning to the club for a second stint in November, but even he struggled to solve their severe defensive problems initially.

They have looked a lot more convincing in recent weeks though and are unbeaten in five matches heading into this game. While four of those were draws, they look like a team that can at least hold firm when under pressure now, while we saw in their recent 5-3 win at Barcelona, they do possess the ability to strike on the counter-attack which is very much the way their current boss likes to play.

Both of those qualities should stand them in good stead in this fixture, with Real Sociedad a side that has really struggled to break down teams that defend deep in recent months.

Their recent home record is very poor for a team that breezed through into the knockout stages of the Champions League. Imanol’s side haven’t won at the Reale Arena since November and they’ve scored just one goal in their last five home outings and with their last three visitors being Alaves, Rayo Vallecano and Osasuna, that’s a real concern.

Take Kubo’s trip to the Asian Cup didn’t help matters during that period. He is the Real Sociedad player who is most capable of unlocking opposing defences and Villarreal will need to do a good job on him here.

The away team should ask questions of their own on the break though with the pace of the likes of Goncalo Guedes and Jose Luis Morales potentially very useful options in this game and I’m backing Villarreal-Draw Double Chance at 21/20.

Alaves vs Mallorca (Saturday 17:30)

Alaves and Mallorca meet in a game that even the most die hard followers of La Liga may opt to skip on Saturday afternoon. It’s unlikely to be pretty with both teams favouring a fairly direct

style of play with crosses and long balls into a big centre forward, but this is a real opportunity for Alaves to push themselves to the brink of safety.

That was their only realistic goal after winning promotion via the play-offs last year and they’ve done a really good job of adapting to the top flight again. Key to their success was the late business they did in the summer transfer window, with strikers Kike Garcia and Samuel Omorodion arriving to offer a goal threat that was previously badly lacking.

While it has been a case of one or the other up top for Alaves, the duo have been responsible for almost half of their team’s goals, whilst also providing the Basque side with a target man for the likes of Luis Rioja and Jon Guridi to play off.

By contrast, Mallorca’s major summer signings have been misses rather than hits. They had a significant war chest to work with after selling Kang-in Lee to PSG for €22m, but striker Cyle Larin, who was prolific last term at Real Valladolid, has managed just two league goals while Sergi Darder has also been a disappointment after joining from Espanyol.

A lengthy injury to key man Vedat Muriqi hasn’t helped matters. The Kosovo international is fit again now but isn’t back to his best and it’s just five goals in seven league outings in 2024 for the Balearic Islanders.

Alaves will fancy they can keep things quite tight at the back here and they’ll also be encouraged by Mallorca’s selection issues with defenders Siebe Van der Heyden and Antonio Maíllo both suspended. The visitors may also have half an eye on the 2nd Leg of their Copa del Rey Semi Final against Real Sociedad next Tuesday and I’m going with an Alaves Win at 19/20 here.

Cadiz vs Celta Vigo (Sunday 13:00)

This is the big game at the bottom of the table this weekend and it’s a massive fixture in terms of the overall relegation picture. Celta Vigo are 17th and currently three points better off than Cadiz in 18th. An away win would put the current bottom three in real danger of getting cut adrift.

If Cadiz are going to stay in this league, they really need to dig deep and produce a big home performance here. However, the chances of that happening look pretty slim when you consider how poor they’ve been for virtually the entire season.

Their last league win was on the first day of September and they’ve been a really tough watch since then with increasingly negative tactics and virtually no sense of a goal threat. They’ve only scored once in their last eight matches in La Liga and they did very little in the January transfer market to improve that desperate situation.

The one big change they did make was in the dugout. Sergio was sacked and replaced with Mauricio Pellegrino a month ago, but Cadiz have failed to score in four matches under their new boss, losing the last two by 2-0 margins against Real Betis and Osasuna.

Celta Vigo may not be the most convincing team in the world either, but they’ve far more attacking quality than their opponents. Striker Jorgen Strand Larsen is having a decent season with nine goals while veteran forward Iago Aspas is still a creative threat and returned to the starting line-up with a goal against Barcelona last Saturday.

Rafa Benitez’s side competed quite well against the Catalans, only losing in the 97th minute to a retaken Robert Lewandowski penalty and they’ll also take confidence from an impressive 3-0 win away at Osasuna earlier this month.

Against a totally misfiring Cadiz side, the visitors look much the more likely victors here and I’m backing Celta Vigo Draw No Bet at 8/11.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...