Wales vs Montenegro Prediction: Low-scoring affair expected

Wales were left frustrated in their last outing as they let a two-goal lead slip in their draw with Iceland. They will look to respond with three points when they welcome Montenegro to the Cardiff City Stadium on Monday (19:45, BBC iPlayer).

The visitors have lost all three of their Uefa Nations League fixtures so far and are desperate to get their first points on the board. Read on for my Wales vs Montenegro prediction, accompanied by match odds and team news.

Wales vs Montenegro Odds

Wales are 4/7 to win this contest, which gives them a 63.6% chance of victory. Montenegro are priced at 11/2 to record the three points, giving them an implied probability of 15.4%. The draw is on offer at 11/4 (26.7%).

Both teams to score is available at 11/10 and over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1/1.

Football Odds

Team News 

Wales will be unable to call upon the services of Brennan Johnson and Jordan James as both will serve a suspension for picking up their second bookings in the Nations League. Joe Allen could come into the midfield for his first start since reversing his decision to retire from international football, in light of James' absence.

Boss Craig Bellamy is also without Dan James, Ethan Ampadu and Aaron Ramsey due to injury.

Josh Sheehan and David Brookes could also be in contention to start in Cardiff. Harry Wilson and Kieffer Moore are expected to keep their places in attack.

For Montenegro, they are expected to stick with captain Stevan Jovetic and Nikola Krstovic up front, despite not having much joy in front of goal in the Nations League so far.

Stefan Mugosa and Milutin Osmajic are alternative options to play up top, and both came off the bench in the 1-0 defeat to Turkey last time out. Key defender Stefan Savic is out of action due to injury.

Wales to win @ 4/7

The Dragons turned in an excellent first-half display against Iceland last time out, before their opponents clicked into gear in the second. Bellamy will have been pleased with what he saw and will be hoping for more of the same on home soil.

The loss of the free-scoring Johnson to suspension is a blow, but the Wales still has players available who can have an impact in the final third for Monday's encounter with Montenegro.

Striker Moore will offer an aerial threat, and he will be looking to haunt the visitors again after scoring in the first minute of the reverse fixture last month. His opening goal was quickly followed up by a second from Harry Wilson, who has been involved in seven goals in his last eight appearances for Wales.

The Fulham wide man has now found the back of the net in his last matches for the Dragons, and he will be eager to keep his streak going on Monday. They will be the danger men in Johnson's absence, but we also cannot overlook the attacking contribution from defender Neco Williams, who impressed against Iceland.

Montenegro are low on confidence and that is what losing three games in a row will do to you. Their record on the road hasn't been for good reading either. They have lost five of their last six away matches, so this will hand another advantage to Wales for this contest.

Therefore, I think Wales are worth backing to win this match.

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

You may think this selection is bold considering there have been at least three goals scored in Wales' last two matches. However, this is me considering the loss of Johnson's creativity, and he is Wales' most important player at the moment.

I'm still confident they will come out on top here, I just don't think it will be a game filled with goals. The Dragons have scored twice in their last two appearances and I wouldn't be surprised to see them score another two on Monday.

Montenegro held Turkey to just one goal last time out, which suggests they are tightening up at the back, and they will want to improve their defensive record on the road.

They will look to put up a fight to start putting points on the board but I think Wales will have too much for them in Cardiff, even if they don't end up blowing them away with goals.

Offers

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