Wales aren’t done yet. If they can beat Croatia on Sunday night, with kick-off at 7.45pm, they stand a serious chance of making it to the finals of Euro 2024. This Group D match-up sees Wales priced at 13/5 for the win, and the away side the favourites at 19/20. Below I preview the match and give my selections. 

Wales vs Croatia Tips

  • Wales to win @ 13/5
  • Wales to win to nil @ 5/1

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Wales suffered a major setback in the 4-0 win over Gibraltar as Ipswich Town midfielder Wes Burns was taken off with a suspected dislocated shoulder. That was the only negative of what was a fantastic victory, as Rob Page rested several of his key starters for this match with Croatia. 

Meanwhile, the away side are licking their wounds having been beaten at home by Turkey in a crucial qualifier. They suffered a 1-0 defeat that knocked them off top spot and has severely dented their confidence. However, the one positive for Zlatko Dalić is that none of his big stars were injured or suspended ahead of this trip to Cardiff.

Wales to win @ 13/5

We’ve seen these sorts of nights before for Wales. In these dramatic qualifiers when they desperately need a win on home soil, the crowd steps up to the plate. They overcame Ukraine in front of a raucous crowd to make it to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, and I can see a similar sort of performance, inspired by emotion, on Sunday night. 

This isn’t just a pick based on heart and fight however. Wales drew 1-1 with Croatia in the reverse fixture and based on what we have seen recently, can go one better here. The defeat for Dalic’s side against Turkey has changed the entire complexity of this group. It looked as though the knockout football specialists were going to top it with ease, however now they are at risk of failing to qualify completely.

With an ageing squad, they now have to go to the lion’s den and avoid defeat. This feels like it could be the end of an era for Croatia, and Wales can take full advantage with a raucous crowd right behind them. 

Wales to win to nil @ 5/1

This price is huge, and if we fancy Wales to win, we can also back them to keep a clean sheet. Croatia, for all their talent, have struggled for goals over the past couple of months. The team that hit four past the Netherlands in the summer seem to have lost their way. They had 26 shots against Armenia in September and only scored once, before drawing a blank last time out against Turkey. 

It’s certainly a concern for Croatia, while Wales have now kept three clean sheets on the bounce. Page will want to build upon that solid defence, and if they get in front, expect an inspired rearguard action. 5/1 on them to win at home to nil feels huge against a Croatia side that simply isn’t firing at the moment. 

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