Villarreal vs Real Madrid Prediction: 13/8 for Perez to strike anytime appeals

Real Madrid are back in action on Saturday, as they take on Villarreal at the Estadi de la Ceramica in La Liga, less than 72 hours on from an intense Madrid derby in the Champions League.

Mark Sochon as per usual is in situ with the Betfred Insights look at this one. Check out his Villarreal vs Real Madrid Predictions in his full match preview for us below...

Football Odds

Wednesday’s game at the Estadio Metropolitano highlighted again some of the flaws in this Real Madrid side, but followers of Los Blancos can at least still take comfort from their team’s uncanny knack when it comes to winning European ties, even when they aren’t at their best.

For the fifth time in the Champions League era, they knocked their city rivals out, despite a 1-0 defeat on the night and a nervy penalty shootout. The reaction has ultimately been overshadowed by the furore surrounding Julian Alvarez’s double-kick penalty, but Real Madrid will just be glad to be through and in with a chance of defending their European crown.

There’s no let-up for Los Blancos however, with a vital weekend ahead in La Liga. This is one of their toughest remaining fixtures, and they’ll be desperate for a win to pile the pressure back onto title rivals Barcelona and Atletico Madrid who meet on Sunday night.

Real Madrid’s league form has not been great, with just two victories in their last six outings in the Spanish top flight. They did win last weekend, but it was not remotely convincing as they had to face 20 shots in their 2-1 home triumph over Rayo Vallecano who also had 55% of the ball.

Fatigue may be a factor in their current struggles, but the ever-demanding Bernabéu crowd, some of whom jeered their team’s performance a week ago, sense that their current problems run deeper than that.

A lack of control in midfield is certainly one of their issues right now, with the injured Dani Ceballos being missed more than anyone could have expected. Luka Modric has brought that at times, but he can’t be expected to play every minute at the age of 39, while Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouameni are yet to fully convince.

All things considered, there is plenty of reason for Villarreal to be optimistic heading into this game, although they’ll need to play a lot better than they did last weekend.

They’d been in terrific form, with 14 points from six league outings, heading into their trip to Vitoria to take on struggling Alaves. However, it was a very bad day at the office, with Marcelino’s side succumbing to a 1-0 defeat, despite their opponents finishing the game with only nine players.

The Villarreal boss will want a response from his troops, and with no cup or European distractions, the home side should be much the fresher of the two teams.

They can take some belief from a strong recent record in this fixture. Real Madrid haven’t won on any of their last seven visits to the Ceramica in La Liga. Six of those matches ended in draws, including a 4-4 thriller in one of the best matches in Spain last season.

Alexander Sorloth scored all four Villarreal goals in that game, and while he has since moved on to join Atletico Madrid, the Yellow Submarine reinvested wisely in the summer, with the likes of Thierno Barry, Ayoze Perez, Sergi Cardona and Diego Conde among the most impactful of their new arrivals.

They’ve always carried a goal threat, but Marcelino will be particularly pleased by some improvements at the back since the turn of the year, with Juan Foyth’s return to fitness helping to stem the flow of goals conceded.

Team News

There are no new selection problems for Villarreal heading into this game, but they are still missing Gerard Moreno, Ilias Akhomach and Kiko Femenia due to injuries.

Marcelino could make one or two changes following a poor result last time out. Barry is a strong option to return up front in place of Nicolas Pepe, while Santi Comesana could return in midfield.

As for Real Madrid, Carlo Ancelotti is sure to freshen things up given the quick turnaround following 120 minutes of Champions League action for a number of their players. Eduardo Camavinga, Lucas Vazquez, David Alaba and Fran Garcia may all come into the side.

The Italian must also decide whether Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior or Rodrygo are in need of a rest, with Brahim Diaz an alternative option in attack.

Los Blancos are still missing Ceballos, Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao to injuries, while Ferland Mendy will also sit this game out with a hamstring problem.

Villarreal vs Real Madrid Odds

Despite their poor recent record on this ground, Real Madrid are the 23/20 favourites to win this match, although punters may see more value in the Draw at 11/4 given the head-to-head record. Villarreal are priced at 21/10 to collect all three points.

There is certainly an expectation that we’ll get goals here. Both teams to score is short at 4/9, while you can back Over 3.5 goals at 6/5. Meanwhile, a repeat of last season’s 4-4 draw is priced at 100/1 in the Correct Score market.

You can back Los Blancos to score in both halves at 6/4, while Over 2.5 away team goals is on offer at 9/4.

If you fancy the home team to boost their already strong Champions League prospects on Saturday, Villarreal are priced at 11/10 to score over 1.5 goals. They can also be backed at 10/11 to win either half.

Unsurprisingly, Mbappe leads the way in the goalscorer markets. He’s available at 4/1 to score first and 11/10 to score anytime as he tries to add to his 18 goals in La Liga and chase down Robert Lewandowski in the Pichichi race.

Villarreal or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 13/10

Real Madrid have not won away from home against a team ranked in the top eight of La Liga heading into matchday 28. That’s a pretty damning statistic and one that suggests they may find life tough going here against a strong Villarreal side.

Throw in a bit of fatigue and some notable selection problems for Los Blancos, and the hosts look well capable of getting another good result from a fixture they’ve not lost in La Liga since 2017 when Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo scored in a 3-2 comeback win for Madrid.

With 83% of league matches at the Ceramica having produced goals at each end, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Villarreal or Draw and Both teams to score at 11/10.

Ayoze Perez to score anytime @ 13/8

Villarreal have been able to count upon Ayoze Perez to provide a consistent goal threat this season. Despite a couple of injuries, the 31-year-old has scored 11 times in La Liga, at a rate of one every 106 minutes this season.

With Gerard Moreno currently injured, he stands a very good chance of completing the full game here, and he has been linking up brilliantly with Alex Baena who should ask plenty of questions on the left flank for the home team.

Up against a Real Madrid defence that has only managed two clean sheets in their last 12 competitive games, I’m backing Ayoze Perez to score anytime at 13/8.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...