Venezuela vs Ecuador Prediction: Home side to take advantage of Ecuador’s injuries

South American qualifying continues this week as Venezuela host Ecuador, with kick-off at 22:00 on Thursday night. Below we have previewed the clash and given a couple of betting selections for you to consider. 

Team News

Venezuela’s squad is remarkably MLS-heavy and after his equaliser against Brazil, Jefferson Savarino could start here. Meanwhile, Christian Makoun, Chicago Fire FC's Miguel Navarro, FC Cincinnati's Júnior Moreno and the Philadelphia Union's José Martinez could also feature.

By contrast, Ecuador are facing an injury crisis. They are without top scorer Enner Valencia, who has netted 40 goals for the national team, as he was injured in a recent Brazilian League game. They are also missing goalkeeper Moisés Ramírez and defender Pervis Estupiñán of Brighton while Jhoanner Chávez, was forced to withdraw from the squad following an injury.

Match Odds

Venezuela are 2/1 to win this match at home, while Ecuador have been priced as the 13/10 favourites. A draw can be backed at 2/1, over 2.5 goals is 11/8 and BTTS is EVS.

 Venezuela to win @ 2/1

Now, I’ve been seriously impressed by Ecuador during this qualification period. Their only defeat came away to Argentina and they’ve beaten Bolivia and Uruguay. However, that was with their first choice XI, and without the goalscoring talents of Valencia, Estupinian’s energy and the steady goalkeeping ability of Moises Ramirez - they are a different prospect.

They also face a tough trip to Venezuela to take on a team that has also only lost once during this campaign. Since their opening day defeat to Colombia, the hosts have beaten Paraguay, drawn in Brazil and hammered Chile 3-0. Both teams have a real chance at making it to the World Cup, but with home advantage and Ecuador’s injuries, I think Venezuela can win this game. At 2/1 it’s a generous price for them to do so.

Under 1.5 goals @ 13/8

Now this game looks like it will be a hard-fought affair between two evenly-matched sides. So far two of Venezuela's four matches have ended 1-0, while Ecuador have had one 1-0, and one 0-0 draw - last time out against Colombia.

These are two tough defences and without some key players, Ecuador could find it tough to get on the scoresheet. The 13/8 on offer for under 1.5 goals makes complete sense in my eyes.