Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction: Idzes into the book in Venice

After securing promotion to Serie A last season via the play-offs, Venezia's stay in the Italian top flight is in danger of being a short one, with I Leoni Alati currently 19th, two points behind Lecce (17th) and Empoli (18th). However, Eusebio Di Francesco's side can climb out of the relegation zone on Monday (17:30) by beating Fiorentina at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venice.

The visitors are ninth, 33 points ahead of their next opponents, and are eyeing the European spots, with a top-four finish that would bring with it Uefa Champions League football in 2025/26 still achievable. Below are my Venezia vs Fiorentina predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Richie Sagrado (muscle) and Michael Svoboda (knee) will miss out for Venezia on Monday, while former Fiorentina midfielder Alfred Duncan (calf) is a doubt after missing his side's last game, a 1-1 draw at Torino on May 2.

Venezia's goalscorer in Turin, Kike Perez, was substituted in the 57th minute with a head injury, but the Spaniard is available for this game after being cleared to resume training late last week.

Football Odds

Di Francesco could name an unchanged starting XI, meaning bench roles again for the likes of Mikael Egil Ellertsson, Daniel Fila and Gaetano Oristanio.

Fiorentina suffered heartache in the Uefa Conference League on Thursday, bowing out in the semi-finals against Real Betis 4-3 on aggregate.

Head coach Raffaele Palladino could make several changes to his starting XI on Monday after his side were taken to extra time by Betis.

Leading goalscorer Moise Kean (thigh) has been ruled out after suffering an injury late on against Los Verdiblancos, opening up the possibility of Argentine striker Lucas Beltran starting up top in Venice.

Danilo Cataldi (thigh) and Nicolo Zaniolo (suspended) also miss out for La Viola, who are bolstered by the return of defender Pablo Mari, who wasn't named in the club's Uefa list.

Venezia vs Fiorentina Odds

Venezia have only won once since December 22 and are considered underdogs to win on Monday, with odds of 2/1 implying a 33.3% chance of success. Fiorentina, who have won just one of their last six away league games, are 6/4, or a 40% chance, to triumph in Venice.

The draw is priced at 21/10 and over 2.5 total goals at 5/4.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 10/11

These two teams played out a goalless draw in the reverse fixture in Florence, while only relegation rivals Lecce (25) and rock-bottom Monza (27) have scored fewer Serie A goals this season than Venezia (28).

However, there are several reasons to believe both sides can get on the scoresheet in Venice.

For one, Venezia have scored in four of their last five games and have lost just two of their last 10 (W1, D7, L2), so they should arrive into this contest with a degree of momentum, despite not winning since April 12.

Fiorentina, meanwhile, haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last six matches across all competitions, while failing to record a Serie A shutout on the road since November 24.

La Viola have, though, scored in five of their last six outings, with BTTS - Yes a winning bet in all five, while Venezia have only kept one clean sheet in their last six games.

Venezia are only 12th in the Serie A BTTS - Yes standings, with 49% of their league games this season seeing at least one goal scored on either side; however, both teams have scored in three of their last five.

The stakes are high for both on Monday, with Venezia and Fiorentina each expected to be going out for all three points.

The hosts would go just a point behind Empoli and Lecce with a draw, but their remaining fixtures (Cagliari away, Juventus at home) are much less favourable than Empoli's (Monza away, Hellas Verona at home).

Fiorentina could also do with a victory as only the top six or seven sides will qualify for Europe next season, and a stalemate on Monday would only lift them up in to eighth, and would all but write off their hopes of finishing in the top four and hosting Champions League football in 2025/26.

The conditions are, therefore, present for both teams to find the back of the net in Venice, making the 10/11 price for BTTS - Yes an appealing one.

Player to Receive a Card - Jay Idzes (VEN) @ 3/1

Venezia defender Jay Idzes has only picked up four yellow cards in 33 Serie A appearances this season, and he hasn't received one in any of his last five competition outings.

However, the 24-year-old is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90 minutes in the Italian top flight and has committed three in each of his last two home games (v Monza and Milan).

Idzes helped his side to keep a clean sheet in Florence earlier in the campaign, but the Indonesia international had to graft for that shutout, being made to work hard by Fiorentina striker Kean, whom he fouled three times at the Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Kean certainly knows how to win a foul, averaging 1.8 per 90 in Serie A this season, and the division's second-top goalscorer in 2024/25 would have fancied his chances of giving Idzes another tough day at the office on Monday.

The Italian is, unfortunately for Fiorentina, ruled out of this game, but his potential replacement, Beltran, is also proficient at winning fouls, averaging 2.3 per 90 in Serie A, so Idzes could still be lured into a card-worthy challenge.

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