Venezia vs Empoli Prediction: Expect a cagey clash at the Penzo

The congested bottom half of Serie A could become even tighter on Saturday when Venezia take on Empoli at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo (15:00 local, 14:00 GMT).

A win for the home side would see them move to within three points of their mid-table visitors, condensing a crazy league table even further. Here are my Venezia vs Empoli predictions, along with full preview and odds.

Team News

Both managers have a string of injuries with which to concern themselves. Eusebio Di Francesco could still be without four players as he looks to get his side back to winning ways in their battle against the drop.

Michael Svoboda is a long-term absentee due to the ACL surgery he recently underwent, while Richie Sagrado’s muscle problem keeps him out of this one.

Alfred Duncan remains out with a calf issue, while Antonio Raimondo misses out due to muscle trouble.

With all four of those having skipped the 1-0 loss to Roma, Di Francesco has the same panel of players to choose from as last week.

Empoli also have a lot to deal with in the treatment room, with Pietro Pellegri another player sitting out after an ACL operation.

He is joined on the sidelines by Mattia Viti, Szymon Zurkowski, Ola Solbakken, Saba Sazonov, Tyronne Ebuehi and Nicolas Haas as the Tuscans look to refind their form after three straight losses.

Roberto D’Aversa will be pleased to be able to call upon Jacopo Fazzini after concerted talk about a potential move to Lazio for the Italy under-21 international.

Venezia vs Empoli Odds

Despite their struggles, Venezia are the slight favourites to get the vital three points on Saturday.

They are 13/10, which implies a 43.5% probability of the Lagunari picking up the win, with all three of their wins since promotion having come at the Penzo.

Empoli are great travellers though, and are 11/5 to record a fourth away win of the season.

The draw is also available at 11/5, implying a 31.3% chance, with two of the previous four meetings at this level having ended in a share of the spoils.

Under 1.5 total goals @ 7/4

These two sides are not heavy scorers. Each has tallied 17 goals so far in 18 Serie A matches this season, making it hard to foresee a humdinger in front of goal.

I’m finding it hard to drop one side of the other in the match result stakes, with Empoli having picked up three of their four wins this term on the road and Venezia so far proving solid on home turf, but I do believe this will be a really tight encounter.

So the 7/4 available for the game to finish with fewer than two goals seems like the sensible choice, with six Empoli games and five Venezia matches having fallen within this category in 2024/25.

Given the need for both sides to target this game for points, I think this one could get really nervy and neither will take too many chances. That says 0-0 or 1-0 either way to me.

Football Odds

40-55 booking points @ 7/5

Without being angels, these sides aren’t exactly the dirtiest teams in Serie A. They have recorded three red cards between them (Empoli two, Venezia one), which is a lower total combined than Parma (four), Lecce (four) and Verona (five) have each received thus far.

Add in that only four clubs have fewer yellows than Venezia, and Empoli are down in eighth on the list of bookings, and I can see that meshing with a tendency to wait and see what the other side offers to make this one a cagey fixture.

That’s why I think we’ll see a bit of a tussle but no more than four or five bookings, falling into this category nicely at a decent price of 7/5 and a 41.7% probability.

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