USA vs Ecuador Prediction: Another clean sheet on the cards?

The United States of America will host Ecuador in Texas in the early hours of Saturday morning (01:30 BST), with the AT&T Stadium the venue for this friendly. Ecuador will also be at the World Cup next summer after an impressive qualifying campaign saw them finish second behind world champions Argentina. 

Below you can find my USA vs Ecuador prediction, featuring team news and match odds. 

Team News

As with all of these friendlies, it’s a chance for rotation, but you have to feel that Mauricio Pochettino is keen to get some momentum going before the World Cup. There’s no room for Norwich’s Josh Sargent in this squad, with the forward being replaced by the Championship’s top goalscorer, Coventry’s Haji Wright. 

Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah are the obvious first-choice front two right now, with former Arsenal youngster Folarin Balogun also providing competition. Poch has played a variation of a 3-5-2 in his last few matches, so there could also be room in midfield for Middlesbrough’s Aidan Morris. He’s had a terrific start to the league season, and given Tyler Adams is missing this camp due to the impending birth of his first child, there looks to be an opportunity in the middle of the park.

Weston McKennie is likely to retain his place, while Tim Ream and Chris Richards should feature as part of the back three. 

Football Odds

For Ecuador, Sebastian Beccacece looks to have a fairly settled starting XI and may use this game to rotate. Captain Enner Valencia may lead the line again having picked up his 100th cap, although the manager will want to take a look at a few of the other striking options such as Nilson Angulo (Anderlecht) and John Mercado (Sparta Prague). 

Denil Castillo, Yaimar Medino and 17-year-old Darwin Guagua are three young midfielders hoping to catch the eye, while Kendry Paez looks to be one of Europe’s top talents at the age of 18. Joel Ordonez may also get another chance to shine at 21, having become a key player at Club Brugge. 

Today's Football Fixtures

United States vs Ecuador Odds

USA are 13/10 to win this game, with Ecuador the 9/4 underdogs - which is quite surprising on the face of things. It means the hosts have an implied win probability of 44% as they look to fine-tune their preparations for the World Cup. 

A draw is 11/5, over 1.5 goals is 4/11 and BTTS is 10/11. Pulisic and Valencia are both priced at 5/1 to open the scoring. 

Ecuador clean sheet @ 12/5

Now although I expect changes to be made for this friendly, you cannot ignore Ecuador’s absolutely remarkable defensive record throughout qualifying. The reason they safely cruised through an always-difficult Conmebol group is because La Tricolor only conceded five goals in 18 matches.

FIVE! They came up against Argentina, Brazil and Colombia home and away, while they also travelled to the dizzying heights of La Paz - and they only conceded five goals in total. By comparison, Argentina conceded 10 so it’s one of the best defensive records anywhere in world football, with Pervis Estupinian (AC Milan), Pierro Hincapie (Arsenal), Willian Pacho (PSG) and Ordonez (Club Brugge) making up a wonderful back four.

They are currently on a run of five clean sheets in a row and although Ecuador may rank 79th out of 145 countries in the 2025 Military Power Rankings, on the pitch, they have the best defence in the world. I don’t think USA will be able to break them down. 

Enner Valencia to score first @ 5/1

Keep an eye out on the team sheets, but if Ecuador’s captain Valencia is named in the starting XI, I think we can back him to open the scoring. He’s a top hitman for his country, having now scored 47 goals in 100 international appearances. 

I think he could start and then come off relatively early in the second half, so the price of 5/1 looks tempting given we can probably rely on Ecuador to keep the home side at bay. 

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