Turkey v Portugal Prediction: Portugal win, good Ronaldo and bad Pepe in 11/2 Bet Builder

 | Friday 21st June 2024, 10:30am

Friday 21st June 2024, 10:30am

Turkey vs Portugal Betting Tips

It’s Turkey v Portugal on Saturday, June 22 (17:00, BBC One) in Dortmund between two sides who won first up, so something’s gotta give.

Portugal-based James Pacheco has picks from the correct score and Bet Builder markets at 13/2 and 11/2, so let’s see what they are, and why as we go through his Turkey vs Portugal Predictions for us at Betfred Insights...

Turkey vs Portugal Betting Tips

  • Portugal to win 1-0 @ 13/2
  • #Pickyourpunt Popular Builders: Portugal to win + Ronaldo to score + Pepe to be carded @ 11/2


Thoughts on that win over Czechia?

Positives: They just about deserved it, hogging possession, being more adventurous, had the luxury of bringing on some talented fresh legs as highlighted in the preview (who combined to create and score the winner) and they didn’t panic when going behind.

Negatives: some poor passing at times and some very tired-looking legs in the likes of Bruno Fernandes and man-of-the-match Vitinha.

But the important thing as obvious as it sounds were the three points courtesy of Francisco Conceicao’s late winner. Few sides can defend a lead (or draw) like Portugal because they keep the ball so well and now they’re in control of the Group, which is right up their street.

Changes? Fernandes is unlikely to be rested given his influence; that may be for the third game if they win here. Vitinha or even Bernardo Silva might though, with Joao Palhinha, Ruben Neves and Mateus Nunes among those in contention to get a start.

Ronaldo had a decent game and may well have scored on another day. There are no suggestions he’ll be given the dreaded ‘breather’.

Possible Starting line-up: Costa, Cancelo, Dias, Mendes, Pepe, Dalot, Vitinha, Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Leao, Ronaldo.


19-year-old Arda Güler, the ‘Turkish Messi’ (obviously) scored on his European debut as they deservedly beat Georgia 3-1 first up.

Deserved because they dominated the metrics of possession and shots, both on and off target.

Well-managed by Italian Vincenzo Montella and with as much home support out in Germany as any other side bar the hosts themselves, they rank among the sides you’d least like to face in terms of crowd, resilience and togetherness, if not pure ability.

They’ll be happy to play on the back foot here, look to create problems on the break and will see a draw as an excellent result. The win means this is almost a ‘shot-to-nothing’ to quote the great snooker commentator John Virgo. No-one expects them to get anything from tis game, it’s a huge bonus if they do, and they’re still very much in it going into the last game if they lose this one.

Possible XI: Gunok, Kadioglu, Barkakci, Akaydin, Muldur, Aykan, Calhanoglu, Yildiz, Kocku, Guler, Yilmaz.

Turkey vs Portugal Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Turkey vs Portugal Euro 2024 market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

4/7 Portugal, 9/2 Turkey and 16/5 the draw.

As ever, the relevance of the head-to-head record (two of the matches played between them were in 1965) is somewhat limited but just for the sake of it, it’s seven wins to Portugal and two to Turkey.

The last time they played in 2021/22, Portugal won 3-1. Otavio (not in the squad), Matheus Nunes and Diogo Jota got the goals.

I think 4/9 looks a bit on the short side given there’s still work to be done to get Portugal into fourth gear and the fact they don’t actually need to win the game. I’m not sure that if they equalise in this one, they’ll be rushing to grab the ball from the back of the net to quicken the restart.

The draw makes the most appeal of the three at the prices, but we don’t have to play this one at all. So we won’t.

Correct Score

This one could be the archetypal slow-burner.

Two sides feeling each other out in a patient game of chess and possibly decided by the single goal.

If it’s Portugal who get it, it might be a case of pragmatism kicking in. Even Ronaldo may see the bigger picture rather than looking to add to his Euros tally.

1-0 at 13/2 looks the justified favourite; it may just end up that way.

#Pickyourpunt Popular Builders

Portugal to win + Ronaldo to score + Pepe to be carded is 11/2.

The price may be a bit skinny, but Portugal should win this one way or another so that’s the first leg of it covered.

A Ronaldo goal? As stated, he could well have scored last time out from his three shots on target and looked pretty sharp. Ever desperate to score more goals, create new stats involving him (‘the stats follow me, I don’t follow the stats’, he’s famous for saying) he could open his account right here.

The Pepe card is the one I’d worry about a bit. The 41-year-old’s disciplinary isn’t quite as bad as it used to be with just five yellows last season, although he did also see red twice; he’s not a saint quite yet.

But this may be the sort of game that might see him get riled up. It’s also the sort of game where he’s happy to take one for the team if needed, especially given he wasn’t booked in the first one and isn’t in danger of getting suspended. Let’s hope so.


The odds-compilers aren’t giving much away here.

Ronaldo is 9/10 and that looks the best of a bad bunch to score anytime.

Bruno Fernandes (21/10) is playing much deeper than usual and not getting into goalscoring positions so he’s one to swerve, too. The 7/4 on Diogo Jota looks ok if he starts so wait for the line-ups before diving in.

Splitting stakes between that man (boy) Guler at 18/5 and Hakan Calhanoglu (9/2), he of the 15 goals for Inter Milan last season, may be a good strategy if you think Turkey will score.

*Remember, you can check out all the latest Euro 2024 Odds over on betfred.com.

Betfred Match Offers

Goal Fever

Throughout Euro 2024, Betfred are offering all customers a 25% cash bonus if your selected team in the Match Result market wins by 3+ Goals on selected matches. This is one of those games, so any bet on Turkey or Portugal to win could see 25% winnings, should they do so by three or more.

Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven

Turkey vs Portugal is also one of our games for those who like a bit of a potential bonus in the first goalscorer markets. Should the player you bet on score first and subsequently go on to score a second in the match, we'll double the odds and if they get a hat-trick, we'll treble the odds!

Jamie Pacheco primarily covers Cricket and Portuguese football for us here at Betfred Insights and he'll be following the Portuguese national side throughout the Euro's for us. You can check out his and all the other Football Betting Tips from our writing staff on our main Football hub page.

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