Tottenham vs Qarabag Prediction: Werner to make case with opening effort in UEL

Tottenham Hotspur's reward for a fifth-placed Premier League finish last season was a spot in the new-look Uefa Europa League, and the north London side begin their European campaign by hosting Azerbaijani outfit Qarabag on Thursday (20:00, TNT Sports 1).

Read below for my Tottenham vs Qarabag prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this league phase fixture at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Team News

Tottenham head coach Ange Postecoglou could make a whole raft of changes to his starting XI on Thursday ahead of Sunday's Premier League clash with Manchester United at Old Trafford.

Djed Spence was left out of Spurs' Europa League squad to accommodate experienced goalkeeper Fraser Forster, so the 36-year-old may get the nod between the sticks ahead of regular number one Guglielmo Vicario, while Archie Gray, Radu Dragusin and Ben Davies are all certain starters in front of him. Postecoglou only named six senior defenders (plus Gray) in his squad, so the Australian may have to partner Dragusin with Micky van de Ven as Cristian Romero serves a suspension.

Yves Bissouma returned from a two-game injury absence on Saturday as a second-half substitute in the 3-1 victory over Brentford, and the Mali midfielder should start in the engine room on Thursday alongside Pape Matar Sarr.

Lucas Bergvall made his first Spurs start in the 2-1 Carabao Cup win at Coventry City last week and the 18-year-old should get his second against Qarabag.

Timo Werner was an unused substitute against the Bees so he looks like a certain starter in midweek, and the German could be joined in the attack by Dominic Solanke and 17-year-old Mikey Moore with Richarlison and Wilson Odobert still sidelined through injury.

Football Odds

Qarabag will be without Colombian defender Kevin Medina as the 31-year-old serves a suspension for the red card he was shown in his side's Champions League play-off defeat to Dinamo Zagreb last month.

Neither Amin Ramazanov nor Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev have featured in the past month and the duo look likely to miss out again on Thursday, but there is better news over Marko Jankovic, who returned to action as a late substitute in last Friday's 4-0 victory over Neftci Baku.

Last season's top scorer Juninho struck Qarabag's second goal in that win and the Brazilian will shoulder much of the attacking responsibility in north London.

Tottenham vs Qarabag Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Tottenham vs Qarabag page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Tottenham are heavy favourites to take all three points on Thursday, with odds of 1/7 giving the Premier League side an implied win probability of 87.5%, while Qarabag are 16/1, or a 5.9% chance, to cause an upset in England.

The draw is available at 7/1, both teams to score at 1/1, and over 3.5 total goals at 5/6.

Solanke (8/11) leads the anytime scorer market, followed by Son Heung-min (19/20), Brennan Johnson (11/8) and Werner (7/5), while Juninho (18/5) is the shortest-priced for the visitors.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Tottenham & Yes @ 6/4

Spurs are no strangers to shock defeats in Europe - a 2-1 defeat at Slovenian side Mura in 2021, anyone? - but I would be hugely surprised if they were to kick off their Europa League campaign this year by failing to beat Qarabag, who they beat home and away in the group stage of the competition in 2015/16.

Qarabag have dominated the Azerbaijan Premier League since 2013/14, only failing to win the title once in the last 11 seasons, and have done well in Europe, making the last 16 of the 2023/24 Europa League and only narrowly missing out on the quarter-finals, suffering a dramatic late defeat to Bayer Leverkusen to lose 5-4 on aggregate.

However, the facts are that they lost to the German side away from home in the group stage and knockout round, and the season before that lost three of their four away matches across the Europa League and Europa Conference League.

Spurs may not be quite on the level of Leverkusen and are likely to make several changes to their starting XI on Thursday, but the Premier League club should still have enough quality to get past their opponents.

I do fancy Qarabag to get on the scoresheet, however, with Spurs keeping just one clean sheet in six matches this term, and only two in their last 17 stretching back to mid-March.

Vicario, Romero, Destiny Udogie and Pedro Porro could all drop out of the backline, and disruption in defence often leads to mistakes.

First Goal Scorer - Timo Werner (TOT) @ 6/1

In my opinion, Werner was a shoddy signing on Spurs' part, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he looks like a shadow of the player that prompted Chelsea to pay RB Leipzig £44.3m for him in 2020, and secondly, having the German and Brennan Johnson in the same squad feels unnecessary, with neither particularly proficient in front of goal.

Nevertheless, Werner should be making mincemeat of teams like Qarabag, and he appears the most certain starter out of Tottenham's attackers on Thursday.

The 28-year-old has a decent record in Europe for his previous clubs, scoring 21 in 53 appearances across the various Uefa competitions, including four in RB Leipzig's 2017/18 Europa League campaign following their demotion from the Champions League.

His anytime price isn't particularly appealing, but 6/1 for Werner to strike first looks like a good bet to me.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Carabao Cup or Europa League game on Wednesday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Thursday’s Europa League games.

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

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