Tottenham Hotspur vs Roma Prediction: Spurs to ruin Ranieri’s London return

Fresh from a morale-boosting 4-0 thrashing of reigning Premier League champions Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium last Saturday, Tottenham Hotspur turn their attention to the Uefa Europa League, where they made a strong start to their league phase campaign, winning their first three games. However, a 3-2 defeat to Galatasaray last time out in the competition has increased the pressure on them ahead of Thursday's clash (20:00, TNT Sports 1) with AS Roma at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The Italian side are four points worse off than their English counterparts having won just one of their first four matches, and they arrive into north London with their third manager of the season, former Chelsea and Leicester City boss Claudio Ranieri, who lost his first game in charge 1-0 at Napoli on Sunday. Below you can find my Tottenham Hotspur vs Roma prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

The big news for Tottenham Hotspur is that number one goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario fractured his ankle in the weekend win at Man City and is expected to be sidelined for months. Fraser Forster received criticism for his performance against Galatasaray in Istanbul earlier this month but will have to be called upon again in the absence of Vicario.

With a London derby against Fulham coming up at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, it remains to be seen how strong Ange Postecoglou goes with his starting XI on Thursday considering he has shown a reluctance to field too many of his big-hitters at the same time. Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall have both been afforded starting opportunities in the Europa League and the 18-year-olds will be hoping their boss continues to place faith in them this week.

Radu Dragusin and Ben Davies started in central defence last weekend in the absence of the usual defensive pairing of Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero. Despite pre-match pessimism at their partnership, Dragusin and Davies excelled against Pep Guardiola's side and will likely to start in front of Forster on Thursday.

Rodrigo Bentancur will almost certainly begin the game as he looks to maintain fitness while serving a seven-game domestic ban, of which he has six left.

Djed Spence, Brennan Johnson and Timo Werner will also be hoping for starts after appearing as second-half substitutes last Saturday.

However, 19-year-old striker Will Lanskhear, who started and scored against Galatasaray last time out in the competition, is suspended after two yellow cards brought about a red in Istanbul.

Football Odds

Ranieri's first starting XI in his third stint as Roma boss featured a spine of goalkeeper Mile Svilar, defender Gianluca Mancini, midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini and striker Artem Dovbyk, all of whom are set to begin Thursday's game.

Paulo Dybala and Mats Hummels were a couple of star-studded substitutes introduced by the 'Tinkerman' in the second half and the duo are both in contention to play from the off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Nicola Zalewski, Matias Soule, Enzo Le Fee and Leandro Paredes were left kicking their heels on the bench in Naples but all four could come into Ranieri's thinking on Thursday.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Roma Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Tottenham Hotspur vs Roma page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Tottenham Hotspur are 8/11 to maintain their 100 per cent home record in the Europa League, giving Postecoglou's side an implied win probability of 57.9% on Thursday, while Roma are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance, to claim a first European away success of the season.

The draw is also priced at 16/5, both teams to score at 4/9, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/9.

Spurs trio Dominic Solanke (11/8), Johnson (13/8) and Son Heung-min (6/4) lead the anytime goalscorer market followed by Dovbyk (15/8).

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Tottenham Hotspur & Over 2.5 @ 5/4

Consistency has been the missing word for Tottenham this season and, in truth, under Postecoglou since the Australian's summer 2023 arrival in north London. Spurs did win five consecutive games between mid-September and the start of October but have picked up a habit of following an important victory with a crushing defeat.

They beat Ferencvaros 2-1 in Budapest on October 3 and were leading 2-0 at half-time at Brighton & Hove Albion three days later before losing control and suffering a 3-2 defeat at the Amex Stadium. Spurs picked up after the international break with a 4-1 thrashing of West Ham United and a 1-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium before being edged out 1-0 by Crystal Palace ar Selhurst Park. The Lilywhites then beat Manchester City 2-1 in the Carabao Cup and Aston Villa 4-1 in the Premier League before suffering back-to-back defeats against Galatasaray and Ipswich Town (1-2).

As bad as Man City were, Spurs were exceptional at the Etihad last Saturday, pairing a swashbuckling attacking performance with a diligent defensive display to record a clean sheet in a 4-0 battering. The question now is whether they can build on that Manchester triumph and put themselves in a strong position to finish in the top eight of the Europa League league campaign by beating Roma on Thursday.

Given Roma's travails this term, and with Ranieri being brought out of retirement in an attempt to rescue them, you have to say the signs are positive for Spurs.

Roma are winless in 13 away games, nine of which have been played this season, and they've lost three of their last four travel matches, including in Naples on Sunday in Ranieri's first match back in charge.

Spurs have lost to Arsenal (0-1) and Ipswich at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 2024/25 but have won their six other home games, including both in the Europa League, and five of those victories have seen at least three goals scored.

Two of Roma's four away defeats, both of which have come in the last month, have seen at least five strikes - the first was a 5-1 hammering at Fiorentina on October 27 and the second a 3-2 loss at Verona a week later.

A lot depends on how strong a lineup Postecoglou fields on Thursday, but either way, I'd expect a few goals in this contest with Spurs eventually cruising to all three points.

Player to Receive a Card - Evan Ndicka (ROM) @ 11/4

Roma defender Evan Ndicka has kept things pretty clean this season, picking up just one yellow card in 16 2024/25 club appearances for I Giallorossi. However, close followers of the 25-year-old, Serie A or even the Bundesliga over the last few years know all about this man and his penchant for a booking.

The Ivory Coast international was shown 10 yellows in just 23 Bundesliga games for Eintracht Frankfurt in 2020/21, and six in 25 Serie A appearances for Roma last season.

Meanwhile, Ndicka has carved out quite the reputation in the Europa League, receiving four yellows and a red for Frankfurt across 11 matches in the 2021/22 campaign and five in nine last season for Roma, meaning he had been awarded 10 cards in his last 20 Europa League outings heading into 2024/25.

He's yet to be booked in three EL games this term but committed two fouls on his last appearance, a 1-0 victory over Dynamo Kyiv on October 24. Ndicka is also averaging 1.3 fouls per game in Serie A, up from one per game last season, showing that despite his limited yellows, he's not toning down his physical involvement with the opposition.

The Paris-born centre-back could be in a direct battle on Thursday with Spurs striker Solanke, who has been fouled an average of 1.2 times per game in this season's Europa League despite starting in just one of his four appearances.

At 11/4, I think we're getting good value for Ndicka to get back in the Europa League card groove this week.

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