Sydney vs Macarthur Prediction: Things to spill over again between crosstown rivals

Sydney FC will seek to bounce back from Thursday's AFC Champions League 2 defeat to Hiroshima when they host Macarthur in the Australia A-League Men's at Allianz Stadium on Sunday (07:00, TNT Sports 1).

Read on for my Sydney vs Macarthur prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Sydney star Joe Lolley has missed his side's last two games through injury but the Englishman is in contention to feature on Sunday; whether it will be from the start or as a substitute, remains to be seen.

Like Lolley, Nathan Amanatidis could make his return from a two-match absence against Macarthur, but fellow forward Douglas Costa, who hasn't played since October 23, remains sidelined with a hamstring complaint, while Corey Hollman's ankle issue continues to keep the midfielder out.

Joel King was the only player who started last Friday's 3-2 win at Brisbane Roar to make way in midweek, with Adrian Segecic brought into the starting XI. Head coach Ufuk Talay could revert to his last league lineup this weekend, which would mean a return at left-back for King.

Football Odds

Macarthur have no ins or outs from the squad that travelled to AAMI Park last Sunday for their 2-1 defeat to Melbourne Victory.

Chris Ikonomidis and Bernardo remain injured for the Bulls, who could bring the likes of Harrison Sawyer and Walter Scott into their starting XI.

Sydney vs Macarthur Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Sydney vs Macarthur page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Sydney are 8/15 to record back-to-back victories in the league, giving the Sky Blues an implied win probability of 65.2%, while Macarthur are 7/2, or a 22.2% chance, to return to winning ways after consecutive 2-1 defeats to Newcastle Jets (H) and Melbourne Victory (A).

The draw is available at 16/5, both teams to score at 4/9, and over 2.5 total goals at 2/5.

Sydney striker Patryk Klimala, who has scored in two of his first three A-League Men's appearances, is favourite to net anytime at 11/10, followed by teammates Lolley and Pat Wood (both 11/8), while Macarthur's Valere Germain, who is level with Klimala in the Golden Boot race, is 7/4.

Booking Points Over/Under 37.5 - Over 37.5 @ 5/6

There were only 10 booking points awarded in Sydney's Brisbane win last week with the Roar's Keegan Jelacic the only player to go into the referee's notebook; however, there were 95 booking points in the 2-1 Sydney derby victory over Western Sydney Wanderers on October 19, and 40 in their 1-0 defeat to Auckland eight days later.

Macarthur's matches have been less eventful with contests against Perth Glory and Melbourne Victory producing exactly 10 booking points each - none for the Bulls. However, between those two games was a feisty clash with Newcastle Jets that saw five yellows awarded - two in the direction of the Bulls - racking up 50 booking points.

Recent head-to-heads between Sydney and Macarthur have produced their fair share of cards, too.

There were only two yellows awarded - one to either side - in Sydney's 4-0 play-off win at Allianz Stadium in May, but Kealey Adamson's first-half dismissal meant there were a total of 45 booking points (10 for a yellow, 25 for a red with Betfred).

Over 37.5 booking points has landed in the previous six matches between Sydney and Macarthur, and this is actually a pretty conservative selection considering events of the past.

However, at just under EVS, it's a bet that might be worth taking as a bit of insurance with my second tip in mind...

Red Card Yes/No - Yes @ 5/1

Remarkably, there has been at least one red card shown in the last five head-to-heads between Sydney and Macarthur dating back to October 2022.

The Bulls' 1-0 win over Sydney at Campbelltown Stadium in April was particularly brutal as the hosts had both Ivan Vujica and Tommy Smith sent off, but still managed to claw their way to victory over the Sky Blues.

Sydney's most recent red card in this fixture came last December as goalkeeper Andrew Redmayne was dismissed in the first 15 minutes of a 2-0 defeat at Allianz Stadium.

Talay's side have already been reduced to 10 men on one occasion this season, with Max Burgess ordered off in the closing stages of the Sydney derby with WSW on the opening weekend of the campaign.

Macarthur have kept 11 players on the pitch in all three A-League Men's games this season but they ended the regular 2023/24 campaign with three reds in their final three matches (two against Sydney) before suffering another dismissal in the play-offs against the Sky Blues, while Germain received a red in the Bulls' Australia Cup semi-final success over South Melbourne on September 22.

Considering the history of this head-to-head, I think a sixth successive game with a red card between Sydney and Macarthur is well worth backing at 5/1.

If you want to push things further, a sending-off for the hosts and the visitors is 10/1 and 8/1, respectively.

Offers

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