Sydney vs Adelaide United Prediction: Reds to leave hosts feeling blue

A cracking contest is expected at Allianz Stadium on Saturday (06:00, TNT Sports 1) as the two top-scoring teams in the Australian A-League Men's, Sydney and Adelaide United, battle it out in the Emerald City. The sides have already met once this season, back on December 20, sharing six goals in a thriller at Coopers Stadium - will we be entertained again this weekend?

Read on for my Sydney vs Adelaide United prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds as seventh hosts second.

Team News

The big news for Sydney is that marquee signing Douglas Costa is back in Ufuk Talay's extended squad for the first time since December 28 when he suffered a hamstring injury that kept him out of the Sky Blues' last six games. The Brazilian may have to settle for a spot on the bench this weekend, though, as Talay looks to carefully build his fitness back up.

Anthony Caceres is also back in the reckoning after missing last Friday's 2-0 defeat at Melbourne Victory due to a head injury. The 32-year-old has now passed concussion protocols and could start in place of Adrian Segecic.

Water Kamijo has also been promoted to the extended squad, but Aaron Gurd is unavailable for selection after sustaining a collarbone injury during training this week.

Football Odds

Adelaide United head coach Carl Veart has made one change to the squad that drew 2-2 with Auckland last time out, with Josh Cavallo coming in for Ben Folami who has pulled up with 'general soreness'.

Panashe Madanha (hamstring) remains in the Reds treatment room while Jordan Elsey and Bailey O'Neil are still in individual training as they recover from long-term issues.

Archie Goodwin bagged a brace off the bench against Auckland and is expected to replace Luka Jovanovic at the point of their attack this weekend.

Zach Clough is another potential addition to Veart's starting XI after only being used as a late substitute against the Black Knights.

Sydney vs Adelaide United Odds

There was nothing to separate these sides at Coopers Stadium in December as Sydney came from 3-1 down to level the scores up in the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time. Another stalemate, this time at Allianz Stadium, can be backed at 11/4, while it's 6/5 for a home win and 13/8 for an away victory. Those odds give Sydney an implied win probability of 45.5%, and Adelaide of 38.1%, underlining just how tight this contest is expected to be.

Three of the last four head-to-heads have produced at least six goals and you can get over 5.5 total goals at 4/1 this weekend.

Sydney star Joe Lolley, who has five goals in six career appearances against Adelaide, is 5/4 and 5/1 in the anytime and first goalscorer markets respectively, with Goodwin (13/10 and 5/1) first up for the visitors.

Both Teams to Score in First Half - Yes @ 2/1

Given the goals scored - and conceded - by both clubs this season, it's little surprise to see such a short price for both teams to score. Adelaide, in fact, top the ALM BTTS table with 85 per cent (11) of their 13 games ending with at least a goal on either side, while Sydney are joint third on that list as 67 per cent (10) of their 15 contests have seen both teams hit the back of the net.

In the hunt for more value, I'm instead heading to the 'Both Teams to Score in First Half' market, where we get 2/1 for selecting 'Yes'.

Once again, Adelaide lead the way with 46 per cent (six) of their league games seeing both teams strike before half-time, while Sydney are fourth (33 per cent).

Both teams scored in the first half of December's reverse fixture as Adelaide opened the scoring in the fifth minute through Goodwin, only for Douglas Costa to equalise 11 minutes later. The Reds weren't done there, though, taking the lead again in the 25th minute.

It was the second time in three 2024 meetings that both teams had struck in the first half as in Adelaide's 4-3 victory over Sydney at Allianz Stadium last January, Veart's side recovered from a seventh-minute strike from Caceres to head into the interval with a two-goal advantage thanks to a Hiroshi Ibusuki double and an effort from Nestory Irankunda.

This is a fixture that rarely lacks for entertainment and goals and I'm expecting both sides to make fast starts on Saturday in a bid to get on top.

Adelaide have scored seven first-half goals on their travels this season, netting at least once before the interval in five of their six away games, while Sydney have struck seven times at home in the first 45 minutes, only failing to fire before half-time in two of their seven home matches.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Adelaide United & Yes @ 11/4

I probably don't need to go into any more detail on why I think both teams will score on Saturday, but ahead of my breakdown of why I think Adelaide will win, it's useful to note that six of their eight league victories this season have seen them fail to keep a clean sheet, while Sydney have scored in four of their six defeats this term.

Now, on to why I think the visitors will claim victory in the Emerald City.

The Reds are absolutely flying this season, despite the off-season exits of some crucial players, notably Ibusuki and Irankunda, who combined for 44.2 per cent (23) of their 52-goal tally in 2023/24. Despite their departures, United are second only to Sydney in the scoring charts, netting just one fewer than the 32 struck by the Sky Blues, who have played two games more.

Adelaide have only lost one league game this term, suffering a 3-2 defeat at home to Western Sydney Wanderers on December 27, and that was a match they really should have won as they were two up after 34 minutes, only to concede just before the interval and proceed to throw it away in the second half.

Still, Veart's side maintain a 100 per cent away record heading into the weekend, winning all six matches on their travels in 2024/25.

Sydney, meanwhile, have lost their last two games, the first of which was a 4-3 defeat at home to bottom club Brisbane Roar, who have failed to win any of their other 13 matches this season.

The early-season optimism seems to have dissipated for the Sky Blues who are now winless in their last three, most recently tasting success against Central Coast Mariners (4-1) on January 11.

Talay's charges have conceded six goals across their last two games and have blanked in two of their last three, so confidence must be low ahead of the visit of Adelaide on Saturday.

I do think his side will get on the scoresheet at Allianz Stadium but it's the Reds who I am backing to claim all three points as they look to keep up the pressure on leaders Auckland, who they could overtake in top spot if the Black Knights fail to beat third-place Western United earlier in the day.

The Reds started the calendar year with three consecutive wins and last week's draw with Auckland is unlikely to have dented their own self-belief so I think an away victory and both teams to score provides tremendous value at 11/4.

Offers

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