Switzerland vs Serbia Prediction: Nati to wreak revenge for October defeat

It's do-or-die time in Uefa Nations League Group A4 for Switzerland, who must beat Serbia in Zurich on Friday (19:45) to stand any chance of avoiding a last-place finish which would consign them to relegation. This week's visitors to the Letzigrund Stadion, meanwhile, can still secure a runners-up spot which would qualify them for the promotion play-offs.

Below is my Switzerland vs Serbia prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Switzerland are missing three starters from last month's 2-2 draw with Denmark. Defenders Nico Elvedi (Borussia Monchengladbach) and Manuel Akanji (Manchester City), as well as winger Dan Ndoye (Bologna), are all sidelined for Murat Yakin's side, while Denis Zakaria (AS Monaco) and Pascal Loretz (Luzern) have also been ruled out.

Ulisses Garcia (Olympique Marseille) and goalkeeper David von Ballmoos (BSC Young Boys) have both been called up as a result of the aforementioned quintet's absences.

Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen) will skipper the side which could also feature Gregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund) between the sticks, despite the 26-year-old missing the German giants' last three games.

Football Odds

Serbia midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (Al-Hilal) continues to be overlooked by Dragan Stojkovic following his Saudi Arabia switch in the summer, but club teammate Aleksandar Mitrovic is in the squad and looks set to start in attack alongside Dusan Vlahovic (Juventus), who makes his return to international football after a five-month absence.

Milinkovic-Savic's brother, goalkeeper Vanja (Torino), has withdrawn from the squad, while an injury sustained last weekend has ruled out another Il Toro player, midfielder Ivan Ilic.

Switzerland vs Serbia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Switzerland vs Serbia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Switzerland are 4/5 to triumph for this first time in Nations League Group A4, giving Nati an implied win probability of 55.6%, while Serbia are 18/5, or a 21.7% chance, to get off the mark away from home with a victory in Zurich.

The draw is available at 5/2, both teams to score at 1/1, and over 2.5 total goals at 11/10.

Switzerland striker Breel Embolo (2/1) is the favourite in the anytime goalscorer market followed by teammate Zeki Amdouni (23/10) and Serbia's main man Mitrovic (5/2).

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Switzerland & Under 3.5 Goals @ 5/4

After a positive European Championships in the summer, when they were only knocked out in the quarter-finals on penalties by England, Switzerland made a shocking start to their Nations League campaign, losing 2-0 away to Denmark and Serbia either side of a 4-1 home hammering by Spain.

In fairness to the Swiss, they were down to 10 men for more than 40 minutes of their defeats to the Danes, who scored both of their goals after Elvedi's dismissal.

Yakin's side also showed spirit in their most recent encounter, a 2-2 draw with Denmark in St. Gallen last month, when they were leading 2-1 at half-time. That performance was much more like it from Nati, whose manager will be hoping for more of the same this month, and if they can replicate the fight they showed at Kybunpark against Serbia, they stand a great chance of taking all three points in Friday's fixture.

Serbia have been strong at home in Group A4, grinding out a September goalless draw with Spain in Belgrade before beating the Swiss 2-0 in Leskovac last month.

However, the Eagles are pointless away from home, losing 2-0 to Denmark in Copenhagen and suffering a 3-0 defeat to Spain in Cordoba. They managed a combined shots-on-target total of just three in those games (two v Denmark, one v Spain) and risk being dragged into a relegation battle as a win for the hosts on Friday would draw them level on four points with Serbia.

With so much on the line, I wouldn't be surprised to see a cagey contest, certainly from Serbia's side as a stalemate would consign Switzerland to relegation and give themselves a chance of finishing runners-up.

There have been three or fewer goals in Serbia's last 10 internationals and six of Switzerland's last eight, while two of the three previous head-to-heads between the countries have seen under 3.5 total goals.

I'm also adding in Switzerland to win as I think they are a better team than they showed at the start of this campaign and offered some encouraging signs against Denmark last time out, while Serbia's poor away record gives the hosts even more encouragement in their quest to avoid a bottom-place finish.

Bet Builder - Granit Xhaka (SWI) 1+ Shots on Target & Carded @ 6/1

This is a contest that always takes on greater significance for Xhaka, who was born in the city of Basel, Switzerland into an ethnic Albanian family from Besiane. His brother, FC Basel midfielder Taulant, amassed 31 caps for the senior Albania national team after switching allegiances from his nation of birth, whom he represented at junior level.

Without going into a history lesson, Serbia and Albania don't have the strongest relationship, to put it mildly, and Xhaka's loyalty to his roots has been evident down the years, with Fifa opening disciplinary proceedings against him and fellow Albanian-Kosovan Xheran Shaqiri for their respective celebrations in Switzerland's 2-1 win over Serbia in the 2018 World Cup, where both players scored.

That remains the only time Xhaka has found the net against Serbia, but he's been heavily involved in all three meetings between the Eagles and Switzerland.

The 32-year-old has shot at least twice in all three head-to-heads and has registered at least one shot on target in each.

At the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Xhaka scored with the second of his two efforts, and the two countries met again at the next World Cup in Qatar four years later, with the Swiss star shooting three times - including twice inside the first minute - and forcing Serbian shot-stopper Milinkovic-Savic into two saves. Xhaka also committed three fouls in the match and was booked deep in second-half stoppage time for arguing.

He only gave away one free-kick in Belgrade last month but shot twice, with the second of his efforts requiring a save from Predrag Rajkovic. That shot on target remains his only one of this Nations League campaign but his other two appearances in the competition came home and away against a strong Denmark side. He shot four times in Switzerland's 2-2 draw with the Danes last month and was sent off for two bookable offences in the first fixture in Copenhagen in September.

Up against old foes Serbia, I'm backing Xhaka to make it four consecutive games head-to-head games with a shot on target, while a card for the 133-cap international is also a strong possibility.

The Xhaka shot on target and card double pays out at 6/1, and considering the history, I think it's well worth considering.

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