Switzerland vs Denmark Prediction: Foul-magnet Ndoye to attract more attention in St. Gallen

It's been a dismal start to Uefa Nations League Group A4 for Switzerland who have lost all three games so far, shipping eight goals across contests with Denmark, Spain and Serbia. The Danes were 2-0 winners against the Swiss in Copenhagen last month and will be looking to do the double over their opponents when they face off in Tuesday's (19:45) return fixture in St. Gallen.

Read below for my Switzerland vs Denmark prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Tuesday's meeting at the Kybunpark.

Team News

Switzerland head coach Murat Yakin could make several changes to his starting XI following Saturday's 2-0 loss to Serbia. Silvan Widmer will be sweating for his place after being hooked at half-time for Fabian Rieder, who must be in with a shout of replacing him from the outset on Tuesday.

Edimilson Fernandes, Andi Zeqiri, Ulisses Garcia and Joel Monteiro were also brought on during the second half but to no avail as Switzerland failed to get on the scoresheet at Stadion Dubocica, where Breel Embolo saw a 72nd-minute penalty saved by Serbia goalkeeper Predrag Rajkovic. Still, I expect the Monaco centre-forward to get the chance to make amends for his miss by starting versus Denmark in midweek.

Other national team stalwarts like Manuel Akanji, Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler are also likely to keep their spots in the starting XI, despite the recent disastrous run of results.

Football Odds

Denmark won their first two UNL games 2-0 against Switzerland and Serbia. However, they were unable to hold out on Saturday as Spain midfielder Martin Zubimendi broke their brave resistance in the 79th minute to win the contest 1-0 for La Roja. There wasn't much going forward for the Danes but it was always going to be a tough task away to the reigning European champions who left it late to break the deadlock.

As a result, I don't anticipate too many changes from caretaker boss Lars Knudsen ahead of the trip to St. Gallen. Manchester United striker Rasmus Hojlund could start up top in place of Kasper Dolberg and he may be joined in attack by Yussuf Poulsen, who would likely replace Albert Gronbaek.

Those two alterations aside, Knudsen may decide to keep faith with a team that showed great resolve in Murcia, and five of the back six - including goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel - also started last month's 2-0 victory over Serbia, so consistency could be key.

Switzerland vs Denmark Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Switzerland vs Denmark page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Switzerland haven't won any of their last four matches since beating Italy 2-0 in the last 16 of Euro 2024 on June 29; Nati are 11/8 to break out of that run on Tuesday, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 42.1%, while Denmark are 11/5 (31.3%) to make it three victories out of four in Group A4.

The draw can be backed at 21/10, both teams to score at 1/1, and over 2.5 total goals at 11/8.

Embolo (5/2) leads the anytime goalscorer market followed by Hojlund (11/4).

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Draw & Yes @ 100/30

Switzerland will be desperate to end their slump on Tuesday to avoid having to wait another month to fix things. It's worrying times for Yakin, who had overseen just one defeat in the previous 19 games (in regulation time) - and that was a 1-0 loss in Romania when they had already qualified for Euro 2024.

Yakin's side impressed at the summer tournament in Germany, drawing 1-1 with the host nation in the group stage as they reached the last 16 unbeaten. Italy were outclassed 2-0 in the knockouts and Switzerland were leading in their quarter-final with England before Bukayo Sako equalised in the 80th minute, and they ultimately lost the penalty shoot-out.

It's been a disastrous start to the Nations League for Switzerland but all is not lost as they can climb to within three points of second-placed Denmark, and one point of Serbia - assuming they lose to Spain - with a victory on Tuesday.

However, the Danes are likely to make life extremely difficult for them in St. Gallen, as they did in Murcia on Saturday when it took Spain 79 minutes to find a winner.

Denmark didn't impress quite as much as Switzerland at the Euros but they also went unbeaten in their group and were only knocked out by Germany in the last 16, where they thought they had opened the scoring only for Joachim Andersen's effort to be ruled out. Those two defeats to Germany and Spain are their only losses in the last 11 games, so it's a tough task for Tuesday's hosts to collect all three points here.

A draw seems like the more logical shout with four of the last seven meetings between these sides, including a goalless draw in Copenhagen in March, ending in a stalemate.

Meanwhile, prior to their three-game losing run, Switzerland had drawn 10 of their previous 16 matches, and seven of those saw both teams score.

Denmark aren't averse to a stalemate either as four of their 11 contests in 2024 have finished level, and two of those saw a strike from either side.

A score draw looks like the best option on Tuesday.

Player to Receive a Card - Rasmus Kristensen (DEN) @ 4/1

This pick is less about the Danish player Rasmus Kristensen, and more about the potential opponent, Switzerland's Dan Ndoye, who is an absolute foul magnet.

Ndoye was fouled 1.8 times per game on average in last season's Serie A for club side Bologna and after six league appearances this term - five as a starter - the number is up to 3.5. Astonishingly, the 23-year-old was fouled 10 times in a 2-1 win at Monza last month, a match that saw the home side's right-sided centre-back, Armando Izzo, booked in the first half for chopping down Bologna's left winger.

The Lausanne-Sport Academy graduate has made a habit of getting direct opponents carded, also doing so against Udinese (Kingsley Ehizibue - yellow), Napoli (Pasquale Mazzocchi - yellow), Atalanta (Odilon Kossounou - yellow) and Parma (Woyo Coulibaly - red); in fact, the only league match in which he hasn't got an opponent carded was the one he didn't start, the 2-2 draw with Como, and even then their right-back, Iovine Como, was booked.

He's also played twice in the Uefa Champions League this season, being fouled four times in a goalless draw with Shakhtar Donetsk and once in a 2-0 defeat at Liverpool, averaging out at 2.5 fouls per game.

Ndoye has only featured once for Switzerland in this edition of the Nations League, playing the duration of Saturday's defeat in Leskovac, and he won four free-kicks and one penalty, the latter of which saw Serbia's right wing-back Kosta Nedeljkovic booked for upending Ndoye in the 18-yard box.

So, that's six players this season that have been carded for fouling Ndoye, and we're only in the middle of October. Truly bonkers numbers.

The question now is whether to plump for Denmark's right-sided centre-back or right wing-back to be sanctioned on Tuesday - assuming the visitors keep their five-man defence formation in St. Gallen.

Eintracht Frankfurt's Kristensen, on loan from Leeds United, started on the right side of Jannik Vestergaard against Spain with Benfica's Alexander Bah ahead of him as the right wing-back. Bah was cautioned during the latter stages of Denmark's defeat in Murcia for a foul on Spain's left-back Alejandro Grimaldo, and the 26-year-old has averaged 1.7 fouls per game across three Nations League outings.

Kristensen, meanwhile, is yet to be booked in the competition - albeit he has played one fewer than Bah - and is only averaging a foul per game, although both of his fouls came in Spain - one on their centre-forward, Alvaro Morata, and the other on Grimaldo - both inside the first 12 minutes.

For me, it's a toss-up between Bah and Kristensen as to who is most likely to incur the wrath of the referee, if not both of them. I'm siding with Kristensen as his price (4/1) is more appealing than Bah's (3/1), while the latter may be more cautious given he was booked on the weekend.

Furthermore, that was Bah's first yellow for his country at senior level, whereas Kristensen has picked up two in his national team career and has been shown nine combined across his last two league seasons at club level compared to four for Bah.

Of course, neither Kristensen nor Bah are guaranteed to start on Tuesday, although it's likely at least one, if not both, will. My advice? Back a card for whoever is likely to come into direct contact with Ndoye.

Let's just hope after all this that Ndoye actually starts, too.

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