Sweden vs England Prediction: Can Lionesses win crucial quarter-final?

So here we are. England are in another European Championship quarter-final as the Lionesses face Sweden at Stadion Letzigrund in Zurch on Thursday (20:00 BST, BBC One). 

Sarina Wiegman’s team have responded well since losing to France and got out their group as runners-up, while Sweden have looked imperious, winning three from three so far. Below you can find my Sweden vs England predictions as the Lionesses look to progress. 

Team News

England look to have found a settled starting XI since that 2-1 defeat to France, and I’d expect Wiegman to name an unchanged team to the one that hammered Wales. That means Ella Toone will play as the number 10, Lauren James will play on the right and Lauren Hemp will be on the left behind Alessia Russo. 

Georgia Stanway and Kiera Walsh will lock down the midfield, with Lucy Bronze, Leah Williamson, Jess Carter and Alex Greenwood the back four. The swap to put Greenwood at left-back rather than centre-back looks to be a permanent one now, with Hannah Hampton set to continue in goal. 

Beth Mead and Chloe Kelly are the obvious attackers that Wiegman can turn to on the bench, while Aggie Beever-Jones scored off the bench against Wales to make it six goals from 10 international appearances. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Kosovare Asllani and Arsenal’s Stina Blackstenius will look to provide the goals for Sweden, with the Champions League winner the biggest threat for England to deal with. Another former Gunner, Lina Hurtig, has now scored two goals in this tournament, coming off the bench to find the net against Germany. 

She’s pushing for a starting spot, while Real Madrid’s Hanna Bennison is also hoping to keep hold of her place in midfield. Chelsea’s Nathalie Bjorn was taken off at half-time against Germany but the centre-back will hope to be fit enough to return, and partner Bayern Munich’s Magdalena Eriksson at the heart of the back four. 

Sweden vs England Odds 

Sweden have been priced up as the 13/5 outsiders for this one, with England the 11/10 favourites to win in 90 minutes. That gives the Lionesses an implied win probability of 47% for this quarter-final, while a draw that would lead to extra time is 23/10. 

Over 2.5 goals is 1/1, BTTS is 4/5 and Russo is the favourite to score first at 11/2. Betfred have also provided several Price Boosts which you can check out on the link above. 

Over 3.5 goals @ 5/2 

I’m pretty certain that this game will feature plenty of goals, and so my first selection focuses on just that, with the match result able to go either way. Since the 2-1 defeat to France in their opener, England have looked utterly superb going forward. 

Toone has gelled together the attack, and the Lionesses have now scored 10 goals in their last two - first hammering the Netherlands 4-0 before a 6-1 success over a weak Welsh outfit. They created an xG of 5.57 against the Welsh and 2.90 against the Dutch, so there’s surely plenty of chances on the cards in this quarter-final. 

However, England are coming up against a Sweden outfit that has scored eight goals in their three games, and have some serious attacking talent of their own. They created an xG of 3.17 against Germany as they won the game 4-1, and given when England were tested against France they looked shaky, I’d expect a fair number of goals. 

Both teams want to attack, so we should get a thriller in Zurich.

England to win and BTTS @ 16/5 

England’s last two performances have been strong, and I am going to lean in favour of the Lionesses to win this game in 90 minutes. Wiegman talked openly about the response to the France defeat, and the urgency it has given the squad.

"That really brought us together and everyone really wanted to perform and be successful," she said.

"In the Netherlands game, we really created urgency and momentum by playing really well and to our strengths. With that loss, the urgency came and I think the team really responded well. Now hopefully we can show that again against Sweden."

Free-flowing football has followed and although Sweden are strong, I do believe that the defending champions will get the job done and progress to the final four. England beat the Swedes 4-0 in the semi-final of their last Euros, but this one isn’t on home soil, and Sweden have improved. 

Offers

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