Swansea vs Cardiff Prediction: Bulut can kill Swans

 | March 15 | 

3 mins read

swansea liberty stadium scaled

There’s nothing quite like a south Wales derby, and that’s exactly what the Championship is offering up this weekend, as Swansea host Cardiff at the Swansea.com Stadium (12:30, Sky Sports Main Event). Luke Williams’ side are in need of some points to drag themselves away from the bottom three, while the Bluebirds still have an outside hope of gatecrashing the play-offs. Here’s our Swansea vs Cardiff predictions.

Swansea vs Cardiff Tips

  • Cardiff City to win to nil @ 11/2
  • Under 47.5 booking points @ 5/6

Team News

Harrison Ashby played 45 minutes for the U21s in midweek for Swansea and should be available to feature here, after a long-term injury issue. Josh Ginnelly is also getting closer to a return but is likely to miss out along with Liam Walsh and Harry Darling. 

Having scored a late winner off the bench against Ipswich Town, Callum O’Dowda could be brought into Erol Bulut’s starting XI. Dimitrios Goutas and Nat Phillips will continue their impressive partnership at the centre of defence, while forward Callum Robinson remains out. 

Match Odds

Swansea are priced at 19/20 to win this game, with Cardiff 13/5 to take all three points. A draw can be backed at 11/5, over 2.5 goals is EVS and BTTS is 4/5.

Cardiff City to win to nil @ 11/2

I’m slightly surprised Swansea are the favourites to win this one given the formbook. Williams has won one, lost one and drawn one of his last three outings, losing last time out to Bristol City. The draw came against Watford, who sacked their manager Valerien Ismael the following week, and they only beat relegation-threatened Blackburn Rovers by one goal. 

I think the new manager will come good in south Wales, but it’s more of a long-term project. Meanwhile, Cardiff have now won their last four games on the bounce, and are hunting down those in the top six. That late, late win over Ipswich was absolutely wild, and their success has been built on a strong defence. 

The Tractor Boys boast one of the best attacks in the league, but were limited to just four shots on target and one goal. Prior to that, the Bluebirds had kept two clean sheets on the bounce in successive 1-0 wins. They will need to hold firm here, to secure a big-priced win. 

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Under 47.5 booking points @ 5/6

Backing unders on the booking market might seem strange given these games can often be fiery encounters, but I’m more than happy to do so. A red card is worth 25 points, and a yellow card 10, so we still have some room to manoeuvre here, but these games don’t tend to kick off as much as you might think. In the reverse fixture, which Cardiff won 2-0, there were just two yellow cards - one for each side. 

When you consider the referee is going to want to keep 22 players on the pitch, and will allow for more leeway than usual, we can happily back the under 47.5 booking points at 5/6 here.  

Under47.5bkgpts

Check out our other Football Betting Tips here. 

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