Stoke vs Derby Prediction: Potters primed for opening win

Stoke City and Derby County, who open their 2025/26 campaigns in the Potteries on Saturday (15:00, Sky Sports+), are expected to improve on tough seasons last term. The hosts finished 18th but won three of their final five home games, and there were signs that Mark Robins was starting to get things right.

Derby also started to show promise under John Eustace, losing only one of their last six matches to end the campaign in 19th. The duo drew 0-0 at Pride Park on the final day, but Stoke's stronger showings on their own patch and a good pre-season hint at the chance of a home victory at the bet365 Stadium on Saturday. Read below for my Stoke vs Derby predictions.

Team News

Stoke could hand a full debut to free-agent signing Aaron Cresswell, while his former West Ham colleague Divin Mubama is also expected to get the nod following his loan from Manchester City.

Football Odds

For Derby, former Potter Danny Batth could start in central defence and Carlton Morris may also feature due to a doubt over fellow new arrival Patrick Agyemang.

Today's Football Fixtures

Callum Elder, Kane Wilson, Sondre Langas, Lars-Jorgen Salvesen, Curtis Nelson, Owen Beck and Matt Clarke are all unavailable due to fitness issues.

Stoke vs Derby Odds

Stoke are the 7/5 favourites for the victory, with the draw at 21/10 and Derby at 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, for an upset away win.

The duo's three meetings before May's 0-0 all finished 2-1; over 2.5 goals is 6/4, and both teams to score is 11/10.

Match Result - Stoke @ 7/5

Stoke claimed four points from two games against Derby last season and can grab all three on Saturday.

The Potters ended the campaign in decent shape and after regularly confounding expectations while at Coventry, Robins will be readying himself to bloody some more noses in his first full season in charge in Staffordshire.

Eustace will also have big plans after reviving the Rams' last term, but will need to improve their away form after losing 13 out of 23 on the road last term.

By contrast, Stoke lost just six of 23 home league games in 2024/25 and, after seeing off stronger opposition in pre-season, including Premier League Burnley, have a chance to get a result on Saturday, with another 2-1 available at 17/2.

Player to Receive a Card - Ebou Adams (DER) @ 2/1

Being the opening weekend, both teams will be fired up, but fatigue could also eventually be a factor, and the tackles will be flying in.

Derby midfielder Ebou Adams picked up 12 yellow cards last term, including cautions in both games against Stoke.

The 29-year-old and opposite number Ben Pearson could become embroiled in a running battle, and Adams is a leading candidate to receive another yellow card.

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