Spain vs Serbia Prediction: Back against BTTS in Corboda

Spain took over top spot in their Nations League group table after defeating previous table-toppers Denmark 1-0 at the weekend. They face Serbia on Tuesday night (19:45) in a game that currently doesn't have a live TV destination as of the time of publication.

Our La Liga Betting Expert isn't expecting a goal-laden thriller but check out his preview of the match along with his Spain vs Serbia Predictions right here on Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Uefa Nations League Group A4 is at the midway point, with defending champions Spain looking to take a big leap towards the last eight of the competition when they host Serbia on Tuesday night.

The Estadio Nuevo Arcángel, home of second tier Córdoba, is the setting for this one with rain expected in the Andalusian city as La Roja bid to continue their unbeaten start.

Their campaign kicked off in Belgrade a little over a month ago. They largely controlled that match, but Serbia defended well and secured a goalless draw, a better result than any of Spain’s Euro 2024 opponents could muster.

Since then, Luis de la Fuente’s side have settled back into their groove, albeit with injuries ensuring it has been a much changed eleven from the players that dominated in Germany in the summer.

They won 4-1 in Switzerland in their second game, with Joselu and Ferran Torres netting, either side of a brace from the impressive Fabián Ruiz. The midfielder is one of just four Spanish players who started the final of Euro 2024 still standing heading into this week’s fixture, their second of this international break.

Lamine Yamal was the latest to pick up an injury, with the talented young winger replaced late on in Saturday’s clash with Denmark. Despite having much the better of that game and firing in 25 attempts on the Danish goal, it took Spain until the 93rd minute to find a breakthrough, with Martín Zubimendi’s volley squirming underneath Kasper Schmeichel for the game’s only goal.

It’s a measure of the impressive depth that De la Fuente has available to him, that the likes of Zubimendi, who turned down a move to Liverpool in the summer, is only really a back-up player. David Raya and Álex Grimaldo, who made a combined total of just three appearances at Euro 2024, are other elite level performers that are also finally getting their chance in a national side that has lost just one of its last 22 matches.

Even with all the absentees for the home team, Serbia will have to play well to get a result on Tuesday night. They are very much in contention for a top two finish in this group and they’ll be hoping to go into their final group game at home to Denmark still in the race.

Since holding La Roja in Belgrade, Serbia were beaten 2-0 in Copenhagen, before defeating Switzerland 2-0 at home at the weekend. Having benefited from an own goal late in the First Half of that game, Dragan Stojković’s side effectively knocked the Swiss out of contention with a 61st minute strike from Aleksandar Mitrović sealing the win.

That was Mitrović’s 59th goal in 95 caps for his country, a hugely impressive record by anyone’s standards. As a point of reference, Spain’s all-time record goalscorer David Villa finished with 59 in 98 internationals, and the 30-year-old Serb certainly has a lot more football left in his legs.

Whether Serbia can get enough service to their frontman for him to have a serious impact on this game is more doubtful though. They were pretty defensive in the reverse fixture and their weekend win was just their third in 10 matches in 2024 which includes a winless Euros campaign that saw them finish bottom of Group C.

Team News:

With Euro 2024 stars Unai Simón, Dani Carvajal, Robin Le Normand, Rodri, Dani Olmo and Nico Williams already sidelined through injury, Spain have suffered a further blow with wonderkid Lamine Yamal returning to Barcelona to prevent further injury following a slight muscle strain.

Even without those players, Spain are not short on options. They may seek continuity in midfield here with Zubimendi, Pedri and Fabián potentially starting again, although Arsenal’s Mikel Merino is an alternative option.

The big decision for De la Fuente is how to compensate for the absence of Williams and Yamal on the two flanks. Villarreal’s Álex Baena, who has created more goals in La Liga than anyone else since the start of last season, may come in.

Serbia have also been dealt an injury blow following the weekend action. Fulham’s Saša Lukić, a starter in the win against Switzerland and the third most experienced player in the squad in terms of caps, has withdrawn with an injury.

They also had a number of notable absentees and withdrawals from the initial squad, with goalkeeper Vanja Milinković-Savić, as well as midfielders Andrija Živković and Ivan Ilić currently sidelined through injury.

Spain vs Serbia Odds

Spain head into this match as the clear 1/3 favourites, which indicates they have a 75% chance to win the game. You can back Serbia to spring a surprise and win in Córdoba at 8/1 (11%), while the Draw is priced at 4/1 (20%).

If you’re looking for bigger returns on the hosts, you can back Spain -1.00 Handicap at 1/1. Spain to win and Over 2.5 goals is also priced at 1/1, as is Spain to win and Under 3.5 goals.

Draw or Serbia is available at 21/10 in the Double Chance market. You can also back Serbia to win either half at 3/1 if you fancy the visitors to be competitive in this game.

With Spain missing some of their attacking stars, some of De la Fuente’s fringe players will get their chance, but Álvaro Morata is still expected to lead the line. The Spain captain is priced at 7/2 to score first and 23/20 to score anytime.

Mikel Oyarzabal is an alternative option at 13/8 to score anytime, although the Spain boss could opt for changes on both flanks. Osasuna winger Bryan Zaragoza could benefit and he’s available at 7/4 to score anytime, while you can back Álex Baena at 2/1 in the same market.

For Serbia, Aleksandar Mitrovic is unquestionably their most likely scorer. He’s priced at 9/1 to score first and 3/1 to score anytime.

Bet 1 - Both teams to score - No @ 8/11

It was stalemate when these sides met last month and it’s hard to see Serbia being any more adventurous in the reverse fixture. Only one of their last seven internationals have seen both teams score and they’ve only scored three times in their last six matches, with one of those being an own goal.

Therefore, it’s hard to see Serbia having too many bright attacking moments in this match, but they’ll fancy they can frustrate an under-strength Spanish forward-line.

With Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal missing, there’s a risk that Spain fall back into a familiar trap of playing safer, possession-based football and while they are still much the more likely scorers, I’m backing Both teams to score - No at 8/11.

Bet 2 - Under 3.5 goals & Spain most corners @ 3/4

The pattern of this match may closely resemble the reverse fixture when Serbia opted for a defensive approach with three central defenders and only enjoyed 24% of the possession. Spain won the corner count by a 9-2 margin that night and they’ll expect to spend the vast majority of this game on the front foot.

Their lack of natural goalscorers is still a slight concern though. While Morata has netted 36 times across his international career, the rest of the squad has a combined tally of just 32 goals in international football.

With the number of important players missing, I can’t see them running riot here and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Under 3.5 goals and Spain most corners at 3/4.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Football writers on our Football home page...