Spain vs Portugal Prediction: World Cup winners look for European glory

The favourites to win Euro 2025, Spain, will get their campaign underway in Group B on Thursday night as they face Portugal at the Wankdorf Stadium in Bern (20:00, ITV X). They are heavy favourites to win this opener and should go deep into this competition given the array of quality in their squad. 

Below you can find my Spain vs Portugal predictions featuring team news and betting tips as the World Cup winners look to continue their dominance.

Team News

Ballon d’Or winner Aitana Bonmati has recently been discharged from hospital following her viral meningitis and will meet up with the Spain squad, but she may not be ready to start this first match. Meanwhile, Alexia Putellas is looking forward to these Euros having done her ACL on the eve of the 2022 tournament, an injury that halted the progress of the best player in the world. 

Montse Tome’s side have a ridiculous squad, including Laia Aleixandri, Irene Paredes, Esther Gonzalez, Ona Batlle, Patri Guijarro and Arsenal’s superstar - Mariona Caldentey. Getting all of these stars into an XI remains the manager’s main challenge, as Tome also tries to bring through the next generation.

Jenni Hermoso and Ivana Andres were not selected despite being key figures in previous tournaments while Tere Abelleira and Laia Codina are both out injured. Cata Coll has tonsillitis so could miss this game, while Real Madrid goalkeeper Misa Rodriguez has been dropped, so Sevilla’s Esther Sullastres should get the nod in goal. 

Portugal have struggled with results recently but Kika Nazareth (Barcelona), Lucia Alves (Benfica) and Jessica Silva (Gotham) have missed key games during that time. They have all been included in the squad but with a lack of action, they may not be fit to start the first game - and even if they do - they will not be at their best. 

Francisco Neto has been in post for a decade now and rightly so, having taken Portugal to the World Cup and two European Championships. Taking them further is the next test, and they will heavily rely on Barcelona’s Kika Nazareth, who will come up against several of her teammates in this opener.

Spain vs Portugal Odds

Spain are priced at 1/11 to win this game, while Portugal are 25/1 to land a shock win over their neighbours. That gives Spain an implied win probability of 91% while a draw is also a big price at 10/1. 

Over 2.5 goals is just 2/7, BTTS is 5/4 and Alba Redondo is one of the favourites to score first at 7/2. 

Spain -3 @ 7/4

World Cup winners Spain are the best team in the world right now and they are going to be incredibly tough to stop in Switzerland. Spain have won their last five games in a row, including two wins over Portugal in the Nations League. They beat them 4-2 away from home, and then thumped their neighbours 7-1 on home soil.

This should be one-way traffic for 90 minutes and I’ll set the handicap at -3 for a big Spain win. That means they have to win by four goals or more for this one to be a winner, but with multiple Ballon d’Or winners littered throughout their squad, that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Mariona Caldentey to score @ 6/5

The main reason Arsenal went from challengers to European champions this season was Caldentey. The former Barcelona star made the switch to north London last summer and hasn’t looked back, quickly establishing herself as one of the finest players in the WSL. 

In fact, the midfielder won the WSL player of the season award and then remarkably made it three Champions League titles in a row by helping Arsenal beat her former club 1-0. She’s one of the best players in the world right now, and should play a big role in Spain’s quest for European glory.

Spain should get a lot of goals, and given Caldentey scored eight goals in 15 Champions League appearances and nine in 21 WSL games, I think she offers the best value to get on the scoresheet v Portugal. 

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