Southampton vs Man United Prediction: Saints to strike first at St Mary’s

After back-to-back defeats away to Brighton (2-1) and at home to Liverpool (0-3), Manchester United head coach Erik ten Hag may have been relieved to see the international break, but all focus is back on the Dutchman and his side on Saturday (12:30, TNT Sports 1) as they take a trip to the south coast to face Southampton.

Read below for my Southampton vs Man United prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this Premier League clash at St Mary's Stadium.

Team News

Goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu is a long-term absentee for Southampton, who handed a debut to Aaron Ramsdale in their 3-1 defeat at Brentford before the international break.

Ross Stewart and Kamaldeen Sulemana are expected to return from injury much sooner than Bazunu but this weekend's game is likely too soon for both to make their comebacks.

Among those vying for starts this weekend are Portuguese midfielder Mateus Fernandes and English striker Cameron Archer, who scored their first Southampton goals in a 3-5 Carabao Cup victory at Cardiff City three days before the loss to the Bees.

Ben Brereton Diaz was withdrawn after 35 minutes of Chile's 1-2 defeat to Bolivia on Tuesday, but that substitution didn't appear to be injury-related. Saints head coach Russell Martin must decide to persevere with the 25-year-old or turn to one of his other attackers, like Archer.

Football Odds

Saturday's trip to St Mary's is likely to come too soon for injured Man United trio Mason Mount, Leny Yoro, and Tyrell Malacia, but Rasmus Hojlund, Luke Shaw and Victor Lindelof haven't yet been ruled out of contention, although it's unlikely any of the three will feature.

Manuel Ugarte joined the Red Devils from Paris Saint-Germain on deadline day and could make his debut on the south coast. The 23-year-old started Uruguay's goalless draw with Paraguay and Venezuela during the international window and could even start on Saturday following Casemiro's horrific first-half display against Liverpool, a performance that saw the Brazilian hooked at half-time.

Marcus Rashford, almost inexplicably, played the duration of that defeat. Whether Ten Hag decides to drop him down to the bench in favour of Amad, who scored an equaliser in Man United's prior game, a 2-1 defeat at Brighton, remains to be seen.

Southampton vs Man United Odds

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Southampton are 7/2 to claim their first Premier League victory since promotion from the Championship, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 22.2%, while Man United are 8/11, or a 57.9% chance, to triumph on the road for the first time this term.

The draw is available at 3/1, both teams to score at 4/7, and over 3.5 total goals at 6/4.

Hojlund (7/5) is favourite to score anytime, closely followed by Joshua Zirkzee (6/4), while Adam Armstrong (9/4) is Southampton's shortest-priced player in the market.

First Team to Score - Southampton @ 6/4

Man United are notoriously slow starters under Ten Hag, going behind in eight of their last 12 Premier League games, including their most recent two. In particular, there appears to be a real fear factor on their travels, with their hosts sensing the insecurity in their ranks and seeking to capitalise on that.

Southampton will be hoping to emulate what Brighton and Liverpool both managed to do last month by taking the lead on Saturday.

The Saints have made a poor start to life back in the big time, losing their first three league games, but their most recent defeat at Brentford did at least see them register their first goal of the campaign.

It feels strange to write this given their dominance in the Premier League era, but the visit of Man United should present an ideal opportunity to add to their tally this weekend, with the Red Devils' defence looking particularly porous against Liverpool.

At home, there is more of an onus on Southampton to play on the front foot, and although Martin prefers a patient approach to games, he will surely be sensing a chance to unsettle Ten Hag's side early on, and the first goal could be crucial to their chances of achieving a positive result.

Bet Builder - Both Teams to Score, Yukinari Sugawara 2+ Shots, Kobbie Mainoo 2+ Fouls @ 11/2

My last bet builder involving the Saints was so nearly a successful one as I correctly tipped Japanese wing-back Yukinari Sugawara and Bees defender Nathan Collins to each take one shot. Sugawara went two better by shooting three times and scoring with one of his efforts, which ultimately proved to be nothing but a consolation in the end.

Nevertheless, it has fuelled my belief that Sugawara is an enticing option in the player shots market. The 24-year-old is already averaging 1.3 shots per game in the Premier League after following up one effort against Nottingham Forest with three against Brentford, while the summer signing from AZ Alkmaar averaged 0.9 shots per game in the 2022/23 Eredivisie campaign and upped that to 1.2 in the Dutch top flight last season. At home against an awkward United backline, I'm confident he will try his luck at least twice on Saturday.

I've already laid out my reasons for why I think Southampton will score at St Mary's, but if you need further evidence of Man United's defensive woes, they have kept just two clean sheets in their last 13 games - a 0-2 victory at Brighton on the final day of last season, when the Seagulls were already 'on the beach', and an opening-day 1-0 win against Fulham this term, when they can probably count themselves fortunate that the Cottagers didn't make the most of the opportunities presented to them.

Aside from their issues at the back, though, Man Utd have shown that they are dangerous going forward, scoring in 15 of their last 18 league games, and they should be confident of breaching a Saints defence that has shipped eight goals already this term - five in the Premier League - and failed to keep a clean sheet.

The third and final selection of this bet builder involves Man United's Kobbie Mainoo, who has already been a regular feature in the referee's notebook this season. The 19-year-old was booked in United's defeats to Brighton and Liverpool and made it three yellows in a row when he was cautioned in the first half of England's 0-2 win against the Republic of Ireland in Dublin last Saturday.

Mainoo has shown tremendous potential in his short professional career so far but there are evident areas of improvement in his game. The teenager excels in the final third of the pitch, weaving past opposition midfielders and defenders, but there have been clear weaknesses going the other way, with Liverpool's Alexis Mac Allister exposing his back-to-play limitations earlier this month when dispossessing him in the build-up to Mohamed Salah's second-half strike, which made it 0-3 to the visitors at Old Trafford.

The United midfielder has also been rash out of possession, making three, two and two fouls against Fulham, Brighton and Liverpool respectively, being booked for his troubles in the final two.

I'm not going as far as to back another Mainoo card on Saturday, but I do think he could give away another couple of free-kicks.

Offers

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