Southampton vs Stoke Prediction: Saints can bounce back with big win

 | 26th April | 

4 mins read

Southampton vs Stoke

Back-to-back defeats have ended Southampton's late charge for the automatic promotion places, and it would be a huge surprise if they finished anywhere other than in fourth. Next, the Saints host Stoke City at St Mary's Stadium, with the Potters still looking to confirm their Championship status.

Below you can find my Southampton vs Stoke prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds for this 15:00 kick-off on Saturday.

Southampton vs Stoke Betting Tips

  • Southampton to win and over 2.5 goals @ 13/10
  • Half-time/full-time - Southampton/Southampton @ 13/8

Three consecutive wins had Saints fans dreaming of automatic promotion, but they were brought back down to earth with a 2-1 defeat at Cardiff City, which was followed by a 5-0 capitulation at the hands of Leicester City.

Confidence may be down, but a return to St Mary's, where they have won their last three games, should provide some comfort as they prepare for a two-legged play-off tie with one of West Bromwich Albion, Norwich City or Hull City next month.

Their visitors on Saturday, Stoke, have lost just once in their last six matches, winning twice, and that form has taken them up to 17th, four points clear of Birmingham City, who currently occupy the third relegation spot.

The Potters' Championship status will be secured if they match Birmingham's result this weekend.

Team News

Gavin Bazunu, Stuart Armstrong and Ross Stewart are all ruled out through injury for the hosts, who could make several changes after Monday's 5-0 hammering.

Flynn Downes is unlikely to be risked after missing the past two matches, but the likes of Jack Stephens, Ryan Manning, Will Smallbone, Ryan Fraser and Samuel Edozie will all be looking for starts after appearing as substitutes at the King Power Stadium.

The visitiors are still without injured trio Lynden Gooch, Ryan Mmaee and Ben Pearson.

Match Odds

Southampton are 4/5 to return to winning ways on Saturday, giving them an implied win probability of 55.6%, while Stoke are 3/1 - or a 25% shot - to win back-to-back games.

The draw can be found at 16/5, both teams to score at 1/2 and over 3.5 goals at 5/4.

Southampton to win and over 2.5 goals @ 13/10

No Championship team has seen more games with over 2.5 goals than Southampton (29) this season, with 17 of those taking place at St Mary's. The Saints have won 18 games when there have been at least three goals scored, and 13 of them have come at home.

Nearly half (10/22) of Stoke's away games have seen over 2.5 goals, and the Potters have lost six of them.

There have been at least three goals scored in three of their last four matches, and it's five in as many games for Saturday's hosts.

It was a tight affair in October's reverse fixture, when a solitary strike from Stuart Armstrong was enough to land the three points for the Saints, but I think we can expect more goals this time around.

Russell Martin will be looking for a big response from his side after their humiliation at Leicester earlier in the week, and a big win on home soil in their penultimate game of the regular Championship season would go some way to healing wounds.

Southampton to beat Stoke & over 2.5 goals at 13-10

Half-time/full-time - Southampton/Southampton @ 13/8

Southampton (23) have been leading at half-time on more occasions than any other side in the Championship this season, going on to win 17 of them.

Martin's side usually get off to a good start at home, too, going into the interval in front 13 times from 22 attempts so far, which includes their last five at St Mary's, four of which they have gone on to win.

Stoke, meanwhile, are slow starters on their travels. Steven Schumacher's side have gone behind 10 times out of their 22 away games, including five of their last eight. They went on to lose all five of those, and they will be in real trouble if the Saints hold an advantage heading into the second half on Saturday.

Southampton-Southampton half-time-full-time vs Stoke at 13-8

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