Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction: Unbeaten Boro run at risk on south coast

All signs point towards a play-off place for Southampton but a third-straight win on Friday, when they host Middlesbrough at St Mary's Stadium (KO, 15:00), could give them a glimmer of hope in the automatic promotion race.

Friday's visitors appeared resigned to a mid-table finish but after taking 10 points from their last four games, Michael Carrick's side might harbour ambitions of a late surge for the top six, which they currently sit seven points behind. Below is our Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds for this Championship clash.

Team News

Saints duo Kyle Walker-Peters and Ryan Fraser have missed the last two league games through injury and are expected to be absent again on Friday.

Joe Rothwell will be among those pushing for a start after bagging a brace off the bench last time out.

Boro are still without several key players, not least Hayden Hackney and Dael Fry, who are still nursing knee and groin complaints respectively.

Marcus Forss was substituted early into Boro's goalless draw with Blackburn Rovers last time out and missed out on Finland's unsuccessful attempt at qualification for Euro 2024, so he is a major doubt for this Good Friday fixture.

Carrick's side are also sweating over the fitness of Riley McGree, who scored in the reverse fixture, after the Australian midfielder suffered a foot injury on international duty.

Finn Azaz, Sam Greenwood and Sam Silvera are three players who could benefit if Forss and/or McGree are unavailable to line up at St Mary's.

Match Odds

Southampton are 8/15 - or a 65.2% chance - to win a third-straight game while the visitors can be backed at 18/5 - or a 21.7% chance - to do the double over the Saints. The draw is 16/5, both teams to score is 4/7 and over 3.5 goals is 5/4.

Southampton to win and over 2.5 goals @ 11/10

Southampton have won their last two, both in dramatic fashion. The Saints required a stoppage-time winner from Joe Aribo to beat Birmingham 4-3 and it was 2-2 against Sunderland until the final 15-plus minutes, when Rothwell secured the three points.

It's perhaps no surprise that only three clubs have witnessed more games with over 2.5 goals than Southampton (23), who have played two games fewer (36) than those above them in that table.

Boro are middle of the road for over 2.5 goals, with 20 in 38 ranking them 11th in the Championship for that metric.

I expect Southampton to show why they are 19 points ahead of their opponents, having played two games fewer. Boro are on a good run but two of their three wins in that period were against sides battling relegation, and this is an entirely different prospect.

Adam Armstrong to score anytime @ 5/4

Not huge odds, but with 18 goals in 38 Championship appearances, Armstrong isn't exactly going under the radar.

The 27-year-old has scored in his last two games, against Birmingham City and Sunderland, and it was he who broke the deadlock in the reverse fixture between these sides at the Riverside in September, when Boro came back to win 2-1.

Armstrong is currently joint-second in the Championship top scorer charts alongside Plymouth Argyle's Morgan Whittaker, with the duo three goals behind the league's leading marksman, Blackburn Rovers' Sammie Szmodics.

The former Newcastle Under striker will need to continue his recent form if he wants to push the Republic of Ireland international all the way, and he should be confident of adding at least one to his total against a side that has shipped 31 goals in 19 away games - only seven clubs have conceded more on their travels.

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