Southampton vs Coventry Prediction: Deadly Simms to strike again

Southampton seem near-certain to finish fourth in the Championship, and they face a team that are desperate to join them in the play-offs on Tuesday night (19:45, Sky Sports red button). Coventry City made it to last season’s play-off final, and will be hoping to gain a vital three points here as they look to hunt down Norwich City. 

These midweek matches will have a big impact on how the season finishes, so here is my Southampton vs Coventry prediction, featuring team news, match odds and a couple of betting picks. 

Team News

Southampton will be boosted by the return of duo Stuart Armstrong (concussion) and James Bree (suspension) who both missed the trip to Blackburn. That game ended 0-0 as Southampton lacked attacking spark, but that should be fixed by the return of Armstrong. He has contributed four goals in his last seven appearances and should be able to get the best out of his namesake at St Mary’s. 

Meanwhile, Coventry are doing alright on the injury front. Tatsuhiro Sakamoto is out for the season and Jamie Allen is edging closer to a return, but both will not travel to the south coast. After an energy-sapping win over Leeds, Victor Torp could come into midfield, with Joel Latibeaudiere expected to be reinstated at right-back.

Match Odds

Southampton are the favourites here, priced at 7/10 to take the points. That gives them an implied win probability of 58%, while Coventry are priced at 3/1 to win. A draw can be backed at 11/4, over 2.5 goals is 4/9 and BTTS is 1/2. 

Coventry to win and BTTS @ 5/1

Southampton have won 12 from 19 at home this season and are clearly an impressive outfit, but they aren’t as good as they were a few months ago. Russell Martin’s possession-heavy tactics are frustrating some fans and they are without a win in their last three games. 

They have no chance of closing down the top three now, and in truth, they aren’t going to finish below fourth. West Brom are out of form in fifth, and Leeds are 11 points clear of them in third. It means they are in this strange purgatory, waiting for the season to end and the play-offs to begin. 

Finding motivation for these types of games could be tough, and they are facing a Coventry side who are scrapping to get into the top six. The Sky Blues beat Leeds at the weekend in their best performance of the season, and are now four points behind Norwich with a game in hand. 

There’s a lot to like about this Coventry outfit, and I believe they offer excellent value for the win. They’ve won five of their last six in all competitions, with that defeat at home to Cardiff the only outlier. Both teams have also scored in their last five matches, and up against a brilliant Saints attack, I believe they will concede again. However, they have enough about them to secure another win. 

Ellis Simms to score first @ 7/1

I told you last week to back this against Leeds, and guess what? For the fourth Coventry match in a row, Ellis Simms scored first. He is just so dangerous at this moment in time, and we are getting incredible value on him to find the net. He seems to have a knack of scoring the opening goal in games and proved he can do it against elite opposition against Leeds. 

He is Coventry's main number nine right now and supported by a trio of talented attacking players, should get chances again. Southampton kept a clean sheet against Blackburn last time out, but hadn’t kept the opposition out in the four games prior to that. Deadly Simms can strike again. 

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