Slovenia vs Norway Prediction: A busy night ahead for ref Michael Oliver

Slovenia, Austria and Norway are all level on seven points after three games played in Uefa Nations League Group B3, so first and second place are both still up for grabs. Thursday (19:45) sees Slovenia and Norway clash at Stadion Stozice in Ljubljana, with the hosts seeking revenge for last month's 3-0 defeat in Oslo.

Below is my Slovenia vs Norway prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Slovenia stars Jan Oblak (Atletico Madrid) and Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig) have both been named in head coach Matjaz Kek's squad for their November internationals with Norway and Austria.

Kek has also called up Udinese pair Jaka Bijol and Sandi Lovric, as well as Queens Park Rangers forward Zan Celar.

Football Odds

Norway thought they would be boosted by the return to fitness of national team captain Martin Odegaard, who hobbled off injured in Lovene's 2-1 win over Austria on September 9 and subsequently missed 12 Arsenal matches. The 25-year-old returned as a late substitute in last Wednesday's 1-0 defeat to Inter Milan and started the Gunners' 1-1 draw at Chelsea on Sunday so appeared ready to make a full return to the Norway setup, but the former Real Madrid man has since withdrawn citing a need to "listen to his body".

Manchester City star Erling Haaland is named in Stale Solbakken's squad, though, alongside Fulham's Sander Berge, Atletico Madrid's Alexander Sorloth and Wolverhampton Wanderers' Jorgen Strand Larsen.

Slovenia vs Norway Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Slovenia vs Norway page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Slovenia are 2/1 to triumph on Thursday, giving Kek's charges an implied win probability of 33.3%, while Norway are 7/5, or a 41.7% chance, to do the double over their opponents.

The draw is priced at 11/5, both teams to score at 5/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 6/4. A repeat of the 3-0 scoreline in Norway's favour, meanwhile is 25/1.

Haaland (7/5) heads the anytime goalscorer market and is 7/2 to net the game's first goal, while Slovenia's Sesko is 21/10 and 11/2 in the respective markets.

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score - Slovenia or Draw & Yes @ 13/8

Norway ran out easy 3-0 winners against Slovenia in Oslo last month. Haaland scored either side of a strike from Sorloth, with all three goals struck before the last third of the game.

Slovenia responded well to that disappointment, beating Kazakhstan 1-0 in Almaty three days later, and they possess a pretty formidable home record which is sure to worry Norway.

Kek's side haven't lost on home soil since a 2-0 Nations League defeat to Sweden on June 2, 2022, winning nine and drawing four of their last 13 games in Ljubljana. They've played some strong opponents in that time, too, holding Denmark to a 1-1 draw and beating Portugal 2-0.

Norway, meanwhile, have a pretty rotten recent road on their travels, only managing to beat Cyprus (4-0) in seven away outings since the start of 2023. They've already failed to beat either Kazhakstan or Austria away from home this campaign, drawing 0-0 with the former in Almaty in September before suffering a humiliating 5-1 defeat to the latter in Linz last month.

Lovene are frequent scorers away from Norway, though, netting in nine of their last 11 away matches since the beginning of 2022, including six of their last seven.

Slovenia kept a clean sheet at home to Kazakhstan in September but had conceded exactly once in their previous three games in Ljubljana and only recorded two shutouts in their five home Euro 2024 qualifiers - in a 2-0 win over international football minnows San Marino and in a 3-0 victory over Finland.

A draw wouldn't be the worst result for Norway, who host Kazakhstan in their final Nations League group game on Sunday, so if things are level late on, I can't see them throwing everything forward in desperation to win.

Slovenia, on the other hand, will be desperate to take all three points ahead of Sunday's trip to Vienna, where they take on Austria.

Therefore, the double chance result on Slovenia, coupled with both teams scoring, takes my fancy at 13/8 on Thursday.

Booking Points Over/Under 42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 11/8

There were only 20 booking points - 10 on either side - in Norway's win over Slovenia last month, but the two previous meetings between the sides saw at least 50.

A goalless draw between the two countries in Oslo in June 2022 produced 55 booking points - 10 for Norway, who saw Kristian Thorstvedt yellow carded, and 45 for Slovenia, who had Petar Stojanovic and Andraz Sporar cautioned either side of a red for Miha Blazic. With Betfred, a yellow card amounts to 10 booking points, and a red to 25.

There were exactly 50 booking points in the most recent head-to-head in Ljubljana in September 2022, when Slovenia won 2-1 thanks to goals from Sporar and Sesko, who both struck after Haaland had opened the scoring for the visitors.

Once again, Thorstvedt and Stojanovic were booked, and the duo were joined in the referee's notebook by Sporar, Norway's Morten Thorsby, and Slovenia's Jasmin Kurtic.

Norway's four Nations League contests so far haven't been too ill-disciplined with just one - their draw in Kazakhstan - producing 50 booking points, although last month's loss to Austria came narrowly close (40 booking points).

Meanwhile, half (two) of Slovenia's games have seen at least 50 booking points - exactly that number in October's victory in Almaty, and 60 in their September 1-1 draw with Austria in Ljubljana.

With Slovenia and Norway locked on seven points, and just two games remaining for each in the group, there's a real chance events could spill over on Thursday, leading to multiple bookings by English referee Michael Oliver, who dished out three yellows and one red in his most recent game on European soil, PSV Eindhoven's 4-0 win over Girona in the Netherlands on November 5.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Nations League game on Friday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Saturday’s Nations League games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.