Slovenia vs Bulgaria Prediction: Euro 2024’s dark horses to win again?

Slovenia are potentially one of the dark horses of Euro 2024. Despite having the same number of points and a better goal difference than Denmark, they failed to win their qualification group via the head-to-head record, but they will get a chance for revenge in Germany. They’ve been drawn in the same group as the Danes, Serbia and of course, England. 

The Three Lions will hope to have already secured qualification by the time they meet in the final group game, but there’s a growing belief amongst Matjaz Kek and his team that they can do something special on the big stage. This represents their final match before they get their tournament underway against Denmark on Sunday, June 16. Below you can find my Slovenia vs Bulgaria (14:00, Saturday) prediction. 

Team News

All eyes will be on Slovenia’s two key men this summer. In goal, one of the finest goalkeepers of his generation, and his nation’s captain, Jan Oblak. The Atletico Madrid keeper may be busy at the Euros, but he could drag his side to clean sheets and help them pick up points.

Meanwhile, there’s also been a lot of talk about Benjamin Sesko, who has been linked with Arsenal having scored 14 Bundesliga goals this season for RB Leipzig. Udinese’s Sandi Lovric and Panathinaikos’ Benjamin Verbic offer plenty of experience in midfield. 

Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s squad mostly plays their football domestically in Bulgaria, with the exception of captain Kiril Despodov, from PAOK, and St Johnstone goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov, among others. One name to watch out for is PEC Zwolle midfielder Filip Krastev, who at 22, is looking to assert himself as a guaranteed starter for his nation. 

Slovenia vs Bulgaria Odds

Slovenia are priced at 3/5 to win this game, giving the hosts a win probability of 62%. Meanwhile, Bulgaria are priced at 9/2, a draw is 3/1 and over 2.5 goals is 11/10. 

Slovenia to win to nil @ 11/8

I’m really confident that Slovenia will not only win this game, but have a fairly successful European Championships this summer. I think they can push Denmark and Serbia all the way, and potentially even take something from England in Germany. However, they will want to head into the tournament in full confidence, and the way to do that is to secure a comfortable home win. 

Bulgaria aren’t on the same level as Slovenia in my eyes, having drawn with Romania and Azerbaijan in their last two matches. Meanwhile, Slovenia have won eight of their last 10 matches, including an impressive 2-0 win over Portugal in March. They could be the dark horses of Euro 2024, and should be able to win this one to nil.

Slovenia to score over 1.5 goals @ 5/6

Sesko has something to prove, and Slovenia have shown themselves to be a talented attacking outfit of late. They have scored two goals in each of their last three fixtures, while the last time they failed to score was 12 months ago, on June 16, 2023. 

Bulgaria may have kept a clean sheet in their last match, but they have been relatively leaky over the past 12 months, and up against this vibrant Slovenia side, I think they are going to concede at least two goals. Near EVS for the hosts to score twice, as they have done in their last three, looks like a sensible pick. 

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