Slovakia vs Slovenia Prediction: Both teams to bag in Bratislava

Similar names, similar flags - I hope Paul Merson's not on English commentary for the first leg of Slovakia's Uefa Nations League play-off tie with Slovenia on Thursday (19:45). In fairness, there's been little to separate the two nations in football terms over recent years with the last two meetings - both in 2021 - ending in draws, and both reached the last 16 of Euro 2024 last summer with Slovakia bowing out against England after extra time and Slovenia suffering penalty shootout heartache against Portugal.

Below are my Slovakia vs Slovenia predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as the former plays host to the latter at Stadion Tehelne pole in Bratislava. The return fixture takes place on Sunday at Stadion Stozice in Ljubljana with a spot in the Uefa Nations League Division B up for grabs.

Team News

Martin Dubravka (Newcastle United), fresh off winning the Carabao Cup with his club side, is among the most recognisable faces in Francesco Calzona's Slovakia squad which also features Milan Skriniar (Paris Saint-Germain, on loan to Fenerbahce), David Hancko (Feyenoord), Ondrej Duda (Hellas Verona) and Stanislav Lobotka (Napoli).

Lukas Haraslin (Sparta Prague), Robert Bozenik (Boavista), David Strelec (Slovan Bratislava) and Ivan Schranz (Slavia Prague) are four of the eight attackers named by the Italian head coach, who was unable to call up injured 112-cap midfielder Juraj Kucka (Slovan Bratislava).

Football Odds

Slovenia boss Matjaz Kek will be counting on his big guns to produce at either end of the pitch this month with goalkeeper and captain Jan Oblak (Atletico Madrid) hoping to shut the Slovakians out to give striker Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig) the chance to make himself a hero.

Andraz Sporar (Alanyaspor), Sandi Lovric and Jaka Bijol (both Udinese) are other notable names in the squad, but experienced duo Josip Ilicic (Maribor) and Jasmin Kurtic (Sudtirol) are out injured.

Midfielder Adam Gnezda Cerin (Panathinaikos), who struck Slovenia's equaliser in their last game, a 1-1 draw with Austria in Vienna last November, is suspended for the first leg against Slovakia after accumulating too many yellow cards in the competition.

Slovakia vs Slovenia Odds

Slovakia (41) are ranked 14 places higher than Slovenia (55) by Fifa but are the lower-ranked Nations League team heading into this one, finishing second in Group C1 as opposed to their opponents' third-place outcome in Group B3. They're not overwhelming favourites but home advantage on Thursday bumps them up to 10/11 to win the first leg, implying a probability of 52.4%, while the visitors are 5/2, or a 28.6% chance, to take a lead back to Ljubljana.

The last two head-to-heads have ended in a stalemate and you can back a third successive draw between the pair at 21/10 here, while both teams to score is priced at 10/11.

Sesko (11/5) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by Bozenik (9/4).

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 10/11

Slovakia and Slovenia last met in 2021, playing out a couple of draws that year, the first a 1-1 draw in Ljubljana and the second a 2-2 stalemate in Trnava. I'm not paying too much mind to those results, but both sides were involved in plenty of games last year where there was at least one goal for both them and the opposition.

Half (five) of Slovakia's competitive fixtures last year saw both teams score including three of their last four in Nations League Group C1, while Slovenia also saw 50% of their 10 competitive games finish with at least one strike for either side including their last two in Nations League Group B3.

Slovakia don't possess a striker as formidable as Slovenia's Sesko, who has 16 goals in 39 caps and is reportedly on the radar of some of Europe's biggest clubs following his goalscoring exploits for both club and country over the last couple of years.

However, three of the forwards named in Calzona's squad - Bozenik, Haraslin and Strelec - have each scored seven goals in senior international football, and another - Schranz - is just one behind the trio. 81-cap midfielder Duda, meanwhile, is fifth in their list of all-time top scorers with 15 goals, just one behind fourth-placed Robert Mak (16).

There are goals in this Slovakia side, further evidenced by the fact that they scored in all six of their Group C1 games in the autumn, and they've found the net in all of their last 13 games, notching against international big-hitters like Belgium and England - both at Euro 2024 - in that period. They last failed to get on the scoresheet last March, going down 2-0 at home to Austria in a friendly.

Slovenia, meanwhile, only blanked once in their Nations League group, in a 3-0 defeat to Norway in Oslo, and with Sesko up top, they pose a danger to any nation.

At just under EVS, implying a probability of 52.4%, I'm backing both teams to score in Bratislava.

First Goalscorer - Benjamin Sesko (SVN) @ 11/2

Sesko has a quite ridiculous record of scoring first this season, doing so 13 times for club and country in 2024/25.

The 21-year-old let me down the last time I backed him in this market as Leipzig were held to a goalless draw by Augsburg on Valentine's Day, but 12 days later, he scored the only goal of the game in a 1-0 win over Wolfsburg.

Sesko scored five of Slovenia's seven goals in their Nations League group and his first two were both openers, in a 1-1 draw with Austria and a 3-0 victory over Kazakhstan. He also struck early on in a 4-1 home defeat to Norway, but his 21st-minute penalty came 17 minutes after club teammate Antonio Nusa had put the Norwegians in front.

At 11/2, he's a nice price to make it 14 opening goals for club and country this season.

Offers

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