Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry Prediction: 16/5 about stalemate between familiar foes

The incredible tussle for Championship play-off football continues on Saturday when eighth meets 10th as Sheffield Wednesday host Coventry City at Hillsborough (15:00 GMT).

The two sides come into this one in their highest league position since August after narrow midweek victories, and a winner in S6 would really start to alert the top six. Keep reading for my Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry predictions, along with full preview and odds.

Team News

Wednesday’s squad is starting to look increasingly thin as they prepare to face the Sky Blues for the seventh time in 14 months.

Di’Shon Bernard underwent knee surgery on Thursday which will keep him out of action for at least six months. That came after he limped out of last Saturday’s 2-1 loss at West Bromwich Albion, leaving Michael Ihiekwe and Max Lowe as Danny Rohl’s only viable senior options at centre-back.

Dominic Iorfa (hamstring) and Akin Famewo (thigh) are still not on Wednesday’s list of registered players for the second half of the season as they continue their recoveries, with youngster Gabriel Otegbayo currently the Owls’ only alternative on the bench.

There’s also still no Barry Bannan, who has missed the last two matches. Rohl has been tight-lipped on the exact nature and timescale of his captain’s injury, but the Scot is not expected back for this one. Anthony Musaba is also still sidelined with a knock he has been carrying for some weeks.

Ibrahim Cissoko came on for his Wednesday debut in the 1-0 win at Swansea City in midweek, while Japanese full-back Ryo Hatsuse could be included for the first time since arriving from Vissel Kobe earlier this month.

For Frank Lampard’s Coventry City™, new signing Matt Grimes should continue in midfield with skipper Ben Sheaf still sidelined, while Oliver Dovin will play in goal having made the position his own since the former England midfielder replaced Mark Robins as manager.

Ephron Mason-Clark came off the bench for the final 20 minutes of the 1-0 win over QPR on Tuesday having been out of action for a month, so could see game time once more at Hillsborough even though he is not expected to start.

Haji Wright returned to training on Thursday after three months out but won’t be an option just yet, leaving Lampard pondering another run-out for the 5-4-1 formation which just about got the job done against Rangers in midweek.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry Odds

Betfred’s poor traders must feel like they’re pricing up Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry markets every five minutes, and with good reason.

In six previous meetings since Christmas 2023, Cov have won three, Wednesday one and there have been two draws, the latter of the stalemates coming in the FA Cup with City going on to progress on penalties.

Another Coventry win is a 2/1 chance, while Wednesday are 11/8 to make home advantage count for just the sixth time in 17 matches at Hillsborough this season.

Given the sheer amount of clashes in recent times, apathy is priced at… sorry, the draw is priced at 23/10, and the Owls’ return of seven draws in 16 home games at a rate of 43.8% makes the implied 30.3% probability of those odds appealing.

Both teams have found the net in the last five meetings, making the 8/11 (57.9% chance) for that to be repeated here another attractive proposition.

Draw and BTTS @ 16/5

So here it is, Game 7 of the pseudo-World Series. Except those deciders are surrounded by anticipation and bursting with narrative. This one feels like a dysfunctional family Christmas which has gone on about five days too long.

Given the context, it will be hard for either team to truly shock the other. And Wednesday have few cards up their sleeves at the minute due to their injury status.

They do have Djeidi Gassama firing, though the electric winger was short of his best in Swansea on Wednesday after a period in which he has had the most back-to-back outings of his career to date. He had also played the full 90 minutes in five of his last six league appearances before being replaced late on in South Wales.

The former Paris Saint-Germain star remains an ace in the pack though, and was a scorer in the reverse fixture at the CBS back in October.

Coventry have also hit form though, and while they lost successive games to Leeds United and Ipswich Town in league and cup recently, the scrappy win over QPR returned them to the winners’ circle after the four straight victories which had preceded the Leeds loss.

Games between these two have become increasingly tight, and I don’t see this being any different. The draw at 23/10 looks appealing, but there will be goals in it too, so I’m taking the extra value of adding both teams to score and claiming the 16/5 with its 23.8% implied probability.

Football Odds

Coventry to score first @ 11/10

In 16 home matches this season, Wednesday have contrived to concede the first goal on seven occasions at a 46.7% clip.

There’s also the small matter of Coventry having opened the scoring in all six of the recent clashes between these two, with the Owls coming back to earn draws in the FA Cup in successive seasons and also record a 2-1 win from behind at the CBS earlier this season.

So the smart money will be on this 11/10 shot at an implied probability of 47.6%. And if Coventry do go ahead and it feels like we’re in the same situation we’ve been in half-a-dozen times in just over a year, at least you can console yourself with the fact we won’t see this fixture again until at least next season.

Unless they meet in the play-off final. Oh Lord, please don’t let them meet in the play-off final.

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