Sheffield United vs Cardiff City Prediction: Blades rally on the cards again at 18/5

Sheffield United will be looking to inject some momentum back into their season on Thursday night when they welcome Cardiff City to Bramall Lane in the third round of the FA Cup (19:00 GMT).

The Blades have won just one of four Championship games since seeing off the Bluebirds prior to the Christmas break, and Chris Wilder will be keen for United to build on Saturday’s 2-1 success at Watford. Keep reading for my Sheffield United vs Cardiff City predictions, along with full preview and odds.

Team News

Like most FA Cup games these days, changes have to be anticipated, particularly given the rhetoric coming out of the two clubs this week.

“I don’t want to kid anyone… This is going to be a changed team,” United boss Chris Wilder admitted in the week. “I spoke to the owners about it, our priority is doing well in our division and we are doing that at the moment.

“I can’t afford anyone to suffer in the medium to long-term. There’ll be opportunities for a lot of the kids.”

That viewpoint has been brought into sharp focus by the Blades’ raft of injury and illness issues of late. Ollie Arblaster’s long-term absence after rupturing his ACL in November’s Steel City derby is just the start of their problems.

Tyrese Campbell (muscle), Femi Seriki (calf), Harry Souttar (ankle), Vinicius Souza (leg) and Jesuran Rak-Sakyi (muscle) are all expected to sit this one out, with Kieffer Moore battling to shake off an illness.

Better news comes in Gustavo Hamer being cleared to play, but with Wilder promising wholesale alterations, the former Coventry City star may be held back for next Saturday’s visit of Norwich City.

There has been a similar message from Cardiff’s Omer Riza, who has promised to have a go at reaching the fourth round but also conceded: “This is an opportunity for players who haven’t had as many minutes, as well as youngsters who are ready to play.”

Aaron Ramsey misses out in any case due to a hamstring issue which has decimated his season, while Kion Etete is also a long-term absentee and has been linked with multiple League 1 clubs already during the January transfer window.

Riza may involve Roko Simic after the Croatia under-21 striker returned this week from a loan spell with KV Kortrijk.

Sheffield United vs Cardiff City Odds

This might be a tough one to call due to the sheer number of fringe players expected to play, but Sheffield United are understandable favourites with Betfred at 5/6, which implies a 54.5% probability of a home win in 90 minutes.

There could be value in backing Cardiff to get the job done in regular time at 3/1 given the unpredictable nature of this one.

Or if you fancy a bit of a nervy stalemate, the draw is available at 11/4, suggesting a 26.7% chance of extra time being played. The Bluebirds’ last two Championship fixtures have ended in 1-1 deadlocks, so that looks like a value pick.

Both teams to score has come good in all of United’s last three matches and six of Cardiff’s last eight, so the 4/5 (55.6%) offered for that to occur once more seems inviting.

Sheff Utd and BTTS @ 11/4

Some cup games of this nature feel like they’re ready to peter out from the first minute. Others become a shackles-off barn-burner.

I don’t see this one being at either end of that scale really. The cold temperatures expected in Sheffield and the heavy rotations of both sides could see this one open out just enough to get a few goals.

The Blades have become more breachable at home of late, and if Adam Davies comes in for the formidable Michael Cooper in goal there is every chance Cardiff can cause some damage.

That said, United have to be backed given their previous Premier League pedigree and the associated ability to pad out their squad to a deeper level.

So I’m happy to back a home win with both teams getting on the scoreboard, since I think there’s a far greater chance than the implied 26.7% of the 11/4 odds that this one comes in.

Football Odds

Draw/Sheff Utd HT/FT @ 18/5

Let’s play the numbers game behind this tip. In 28 league and cup fixtures this season, Sheffield United have turned a half-time deadlock into victory seven times. That’s a 25 per cent success rate.

If you’re happy to surmise that United will add to their 17 wins so far, then that conversion rate becomes seven of 17 (41.1%).

In layman’s terms, almost half of the Blades’ wins come thanks to breaking teams down in the second half, so the 18/5 being presented by Betfred at an implied probability of 21.7% massively underestimates United’s ability to get the job done after the interval.

I’m happy to take those odds about an eventuality we have seen play out so often in the Championship this term. Despite the changes, I expect a Chris Wilder team to fight through to the end just as they would at full strength and that could see them get over the line late on.

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