Roma vs Lazio Prediction: Flying Dutchman to set sail early in Derby della Capitale

Lazio were beaten 2-0 by Inter Milan in the Coppa Italia final in midweek, but I Biancocelesti  must regroup quickly ahead of Sunday's Rome derby (11:00 BST, live on Betfred.com). Their opponents, city rivals AS Roma, are in a four-way battle with Juventus, AC Milan and Como for the final two UEFA Champions League places in Serie A, so there is plenty to play for at the Stadio Olimpico.

Below are my Roma vs Lazio predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of the second and final Derby della Capitale of the season, with the first one won 1-0 by I Giallorossi in September.

Team News

Evan Ferguson (ankle) and Bryan Zaragoza (knee) are out injured for Roma, while there are doubts over the fitness of Stephan El Shaarawy (adductor), but Lorenzo Pellegrini and Artem Dovbyk are both back in training and could feature on Sunday.

Football Odds

Ivan Provedel (shoulder) is still sidelined for Lazio, while Alessio Romagnoli is suspended after receiving a red card in last weekend's 3-0 league defeat to Inter at the Stadio Olimpico.

Roma vs Lazio Odds

Roma, who have won three consecutive games, are 8/15 to do the double over their bitter rivals, implying a 65.2% probability of success, with Lazio 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, and the draw offered at 16/5.

Betfred's Price Boosts include Donyell Malen To Score First at 7/2 (was 11/4).

Player to Receive a Card - Mario Hermoso (ROM) @ 6/4

Roma defender Mario Hermoso has been shown eight yellow cards in 25 Serie A appearances (23 starts) this season.

The 30-year-old, who missed the first Rome derby of the 2025/26 campaign due to injury, is averaging 1.7 fouls per 90 in Italy's top flight this term.

On Sunday, the Spaniard, who usually operates on the left-hand side of a back three, could be faced with tricky Lazio winger Matteo Cancellieri, who is averaging 3.6 fouls won per 90 in Serie A.

If Hermoso is left alone with the 24-year-old at the Stadio Olimpico, don't be surprised to see him booked for a reckless foul.

Price Boosts - Donyell Malen To Score First @ 11/4 7/2

Aston Villa loanee Malen scored his 13th Serie A goal in 16 games last Sunday as Roma beat Parma 3-2 at the Stadio Ennio Tardini.

The 27-year-old is now joint-second in the Golden Boot charts alongside Inter's Marcus Thuram and Como's Anastasios Douvikas (all 13 goals), with only I Nerazzurri captain Lautaro Martinez ahead on 17 strikes.

Malen opened the scoring against Parma last weekend, making it the seventh time this season that he has struck first in a Serie A match, despite only joining Gian Piero Gasperini's side in January.

Against Maurizio Sarri's beleagured Lazio side, still smarting from Wednesday's cup final defeat, I'm backing the Netherlands international to grab the game's opening goal.

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