AC Milan vs Pisa Prediction: 15/2 Leao the best bet against basement boys

There’s a top-versus-bottom clash in Serie A on Friday night when AC Milan host struggling Pisa at San Siro (20:45 local, 19:45 BST, live on TNT Sports 6).

The Rossoneri have to be expected to take all three points against Alberto Gilardino’s side, who have scored fewer goals than injured Milan striker Christian Pulisic. Read on for my AC Milan vs Pisa predictions, the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Team News

Max Allegri has a host of players unavailable for the visit of the league’s basement boys.

Pervis Estupinan, Pulisic, Adrien Rabiot and Ardon Jashari are all ruled out, while Christopher Nkunku is likely to be missing and Milan are also sweating on the fitness of Ruben Loftus-Cheek.

The big decision for Allegri seems to be in relation to a strike partner for Rafael Leao, with Santi Gimenez most likely to be on the shoulder of the Portuguese star.

The head coach could choose instead to push Alexis Saelemaekers higher up and start Zachary Athekame on the right.

Alberto Gilardino wishes he had Allegri’s problems right now, as he still searches for a first win as Pisa boss.

Mateus Lusuardi, Daniel Denoon, Tomas Esteves, Calvin Stengs and Giacomo Maucci are all sidelined for the Nerazzurri, with a number of selection headaches for the former Italy front man among his available stocks.

Samuele Angori, Juan Cuadrado and Matteo Tramoni are among those pushing for a start as Pisa look to turn the form book upside down at the Meazza.

AC Milan vs Pisa Odds

Milan are the obvious favourites, and Betfred have them as a 1/4 chance. Pisa are 11/1 just to win in the 90 minutes, and it’s 9/2 for them to get a share of the spoils.

In the handicap market, Milan are 4/5 to overcome a one-goal disadvantage, with the visitors 11/4 to make the most of the leg-up.

The goalscorers markets are dominated by the Rossoneri, with Gimenez the 11/4 favourite to break the deadlock and the trio of Leao, Pulisic and Nkunku all 4/1.

At 11/1, M'Bala Nzola is the most fancied Pisa player to score first.

Today's Football Fixtures

Handicap +2: Milan -2 @ 2/1

I have to admit that with any other club against a team with Pisa’s record thus far, I’d be picking at least a -3 option on the handicap betting. But there’s still that Milan-ness about Milan even when they are at the top of the table.

They’re a much more convincing outfit under the returning Allegri than they were in an abomination of a season under Paulo Fonseca and then Sergio Conceicao in 2024/25.

Even then, with a number of players unavailable, they might just find this one a bit of a slow burner before they truly break down the toothless Tuscans.

So while I’m happy to back a home win with something to spare – especially now that Leao is back and fully fit – I’m going for a two-goal handicap victory for the Rossoneri at 2/1. The implied probability of 33.3% of them winning by three or more is on the small side to say the least.

Football Odds

Rafael Leao to Score Two or More @ 15/2

They might be missing eight goals’ worth of talent in Pulisic, Nkunku and Loftus-Cheek, but with Leao now back in the picture the Rossoneri have a sharpshooter to rely on.

I just don’t see a world in which the 26-year-old doesn’t score at least once, and can well imagine him punishing a Pisa defence which has shipped seven goals in its last two away matches.

At 15/2, Leao is an 11.8% implied shot for two or more goals. That’s surely in the favour of the bettor.

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