AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction: Think Viola cards in narrow San Siro defeat

In most normal seasons, AC Milan vs Fiorentina would be considered a tasty, neck-and-neck match-up in the making, but the Viola head to San Siro on Sunday still searching a first win of the Serie A campaign (20:45 local, 19:45 BST, live on Betfred.com and TNT Sports 1).

Former Milan boss Stefano Pioli has been unable to get a tune out of the Tuscan outfit since replacing Rafaelle Palladino this summer. And my AC Milan vs Fiorentina predictions, which follow below with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds, don’t hold out much hope of that changing this weekend.

Team News

Milan head coach Max Allegri has to go without Christian Pulisic for this clash, with the American forward having picked up an injury on international duty.

That should see the fit-again Rafa Leao line up alongside Santi Gimenez up top, although Christopher Nkunku will also be under consideration.

Adrien Rabiot is also missing, so Ruben Loftus-Cheek or Samuele Ricci will fit into the midfield three with Luka Modric and Youssouf Fofana.

Fiorentina were dealt a huge blow during the break when they saw their hotshot striker Moise Kean withdrawn in the opening 15 minutes of Italy’s clash with Estonia.

They’ll go with Roberto Piccoli in attack, with Albert Gudmundsson supporting him ahead of a five-man midfield. That means more bench-sitting for Edin Dzeko in Serie A.

AC Milan vs Fiorentina Odds

Understandably, Milan are the big favourites. They’re a 1/2 chance with the visiting Viola 11/2, which implies a 15.4% chance of a first win for Pioli.

You can get 16/5 for the draw (23.8% probability).

In the first-goalscorer market, Gimenez is the 10/3 shortest-priced option. Nkunku is 9/2, with Leao 5/1. Roberto Piccoli is the mostly likely scorer of the Viola’s probable starters at 17/2.

Today's Football Fixtures

Handicap +1: Tie @ 23/10

It’s hard to fathom how a team as underwhelming as Fiorentina have been remain unbeaten away from home so far in 2025/26.

Despite having lost all three games at the Artemio Franchi, the Viola have been a better bet away from home.

In truth though, their opposition has had much to do with that. Their three trips to date have been to Cagliari, Torino and Pisa, and they have come away with three draws and just a single goal.

And while they were unfortunate to have a Kean goal ruled out in Pisa, they rode their luck at the other end at times too.

In Milan they now face a far sterner prospect, with Allegri having got a decent tune out of his squad since their opening-day abomination against Cremonese.

I fancy the Rossoneri to take this by a slender margin, so the 23/10 offering on the tie on a one-goal handicap gives us a decent price at just a 30.3% probability.

Football Odds

Marin Pongracic to receive a card @ 15/8

Right-sided centre-back Pongracic has already clocked up three bookings in just six Serie A matches this season, and there’s every chance he will find himself in direct competition with Leao for much of the night at San Siro.

He actually only collected three yellows and a red in 20 games last term for the Viola, but in his final season at Lecce in 2023/24 he was cautioned 10 times and sent off once in 36 appearances.

So it’s fair to say he has form, with six sendings-off on his rap sheet in his career.

With Leao likely to be given lots of ammunition to get at the Croatian, I fancy the 15/8 about the Fiorentina number five falling foul of the referee at some stage over the 90 minutes.

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