Serie A Winner Odds 24/25: Consistency key for Inter amid coaching changes at Milan & Napoli

The Serie A title changed hands for the third time in as many seasons in 2023/24 as Inter Milan ran away with the league, finishing 19 points ahead of city rivals AC Milan.

The Serie A winner odds 24/25 suggest that it's the Nerazzurri's to lose, but how many realistic contenders are there? Below I have taken a look at Inter's chances, as well as their four closest challengers, and made my prediction on how the campaign will unfold in Italy.

Football Odds

Internazionale @ 4/6

Simone Inzaghi lifted the first league title of his managerial career last season when he led Inter to their first Scudetto since 2021, just before he arrived at the club. The Nerazzurri were irrepressible in Italy last term as they lost just twice over 38 games, one of them after they already had Serie A wrapped up.

Inter are now heavily fancied to retain their crown, and for good reason.

There have been no big-name departures from the club, while Josep Martinez has been signed from Genoa to compete with Yann Sommer for the number one jersey, and experienced duo Piotr Zielinski and Mehdi Taremi have joined on frees to bulk up the squad.

Inter scored 89 goals in Serie A last season - at least 13 more than any other side - with Capocannoniere winner Lautaro Martinez (24 goals) leading the way, while they conceded just 22 times - eight fewer than the next best defence (Juventus - 31).

Many of Inter's players are in the 25-32 age bracket, meaning they are supposedly in their prime years, so there should be few worries that they are 'over the hill'. The motivation is there to record back-to-back Scudettos and in Inzaghi, they have the perfect head coach to lead them to success.

The odds suggest it's difficult to look past Inter this year, and I'm inclined to agree.

Juventus @ 4/1

Juventus haven't won Serie A since 2019/20 nor finished in the top two since that season, so it's no surprise to see their price as high as 4/1, despite their storied history in the competition.

However, there is confidence that the Old Lady can better their third-place finish last season after making a couple of major midfield signings this summer.

Douglas Luiz has joined for £44.1m after helping Aston Villa to the Champions League, while Kephren Thuram has followed his dad Lillian's footsteps to sign for the famous Black and White, arriving on a £17.6m deal from OGC Nice.

Defender Juan Cabal is another new arrival after impressing in Serie A for Hellas Verona, but while the 22-year-old is a welcome youthful addition, concerns have been raised about the sales of several promising youngsters, notably Matias Soule (Roma), Dean Huijsen (AFC Bournemouth) and Enzo Barrenechea (Aston Villa).

The trio were supposed to herald the start of a new era for the Old Lady but have been dispensed with to fund moves for the likes of Douglas Luiz and Thuram.

Kenan Yildiz, Fabio Miretti and Nicolo Fagioli remain, but there is a feeling that this is a missed opportunity for Juventus, who aren't expected to win the division this year anyway.

Dusan Vlahovic ended the 2023/24 campaign with just two goals in his last 10 matches and endured a disappointing Euro 2024 with Serbia, but if he can find some form at the start of the new season, Juve will believe they can go far.

Michele Di Gregorio will hope to build on the successful Wojciech Szczesny era in goal after joining from Monza, but it's fair to say that there is no comparison between Juve's backline and reigning champions Inter, who boast Alessandro Bastoni, Stefan de Vrij and Benjamin Pavard in front of Sommer.

AC Milan @ 13/2

AC Milan finished runners-up to their city rivals last season but were well off the pace, ending the campaign 19 points behind Inter, and the Rossoneri will be targeting an improved showing under new head coach Paulo Fonseca who has replaced Stefano Pioli.

Fonseca previously spent two years in Italy as manager of AS Roma between 2019-2021, leading the Giallorossi to fifth place in his first season before slumping to seventh in his second.

He inherits a stronger side than he did at the Stadio Olimpico, with Mike Maignan, Theo Hernandez, Tijjani Reijnders and Rafael Leao four of their brightest stars, and amongst the leading players in Europe in their respective positions.

Getting the best out of his Portuguese compatriot Leao will be one of Fonseca's biggest objectives. Leao has already shed some light on his early talks with his new boss, revealing he has been asked to "stay wide, look for the ball, do one-twos, get close to the area.”

Certainly, the 25-year-old will be expected to improve on his nine-goal tally in Serie A last term, which was significantly down on the 15 he struck in 2022/23, and the 11 he scored in Milan's 2021/22 title-winning campaign under Pioli.

Milan's 15-goal top scorer last season, Olivier Giroud, has left for LAFC, but Alvaro Morata, who skippered Spain to success at Euro 2024, has joined from Atletico Madrid for £11.1m and looks to be an ideal foil for Leao. The Rossoneri's biggest summer signing so far, however, is 23-year-old Serbian centre-back Strahinja Pavlovic, who has arrived from Red Bull Salzburg for £15.4m.

Pavlovic joins Fikayo Tomori, Malick Thiaw, Pierre Kalulu and Matteo Gabbia in the pool of centre-backs available to Fonseca, though the first three have all been linked with moves away this summer. Should at least two stay, there looks to be great depth in that position, and if they can get an injury-free season out of Maignan, there will be great belief that Milan can improve on their defensive record last season which saw them ship 49 goals in Serie A - the highest total in the top 11.

Given their price, Milan are a more favourable option than Juve if backing against Inter to retain their title, in my opinion.

Napoli @ 7/1

Napoli earned plenty of admiration on their way to ending their 33-year Scudetto drought in 2023, but the club endured a spectacular collapse last season, finishing 10th and 41 points behind champions Inter to become the worst title holders in the three-points-per-win era of Serie A - a period stretching back nearly 30 years.

Rudi Garcia was appointed as Luciano Spalletti's successor after the title-winning head coach left following Napoli's triumph, but the Frenchman only lasted until mid-November before being replaced by Walter Mazzarri, who arrived for a second term as Gli Azzurri boss. Mazzarri lasted just a little over three months himself before Francesco Calzona was brought in mid-February until the end of the season, but the Italian was unable to change the club's fortunes and they finished the campaign winless in their last seven games.

Aghast at such a shambolic season, Napoli owner and chairman Aurelio De Laurentiis sent out a huge statement by luring Antonio Conte to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to be the club's new head coach.

Conte was considered something of a coup considering Napoli won't be playing European football next term and the fact he has one Premier League and four Serie A titles on his managerial CV.

However, his success at Chelsea came after the west London club failed to qualify for continental competition, giving Conte more time on the training ground to employ his methods, which paid off as the Blues beat off Pep Guardiola and Manchester City to win the Premier League title in his first season in charge at Stamford Bridge.

Could Conte inspire something similar in Naples?

The former Italy manager isn't helped by the expected exit of star striker Victor Osimhen, who looks set to end his four-season stay at the club. The 25-year-old Nigeria international was sensational in Napoli's title-winning campaign, plundering 26 goals in 32 Serie A outings, and while 15 goals in 25 appearances last season was still impressive, he was a shadow of his former self with injuries also playing a part.

Osimhen seems destined to leave, but Conte is hopeful of teaming up with Romelu Lukaku again. The Belgian centre-forward was crucial for Conte during Inter's Scudetto success in 2020/21, scoring 24 times in Serie A, and while he wasn't quite as prolific last season on loan at AS Roma, netting 13 times in 32 matches, he would be a smart short-term replacement for Osimhen.

Conte can still call on the services of Georgian wing wizard Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who should provide plenty of chances for whoever their striker is this year, while Frank Anguissa and Stanislav Lobotka will be holding things down in midfield once again.

Summer arrivals include centre-backs Alessandro Buongiorno (Torino - £30m) and Rafa Marin (Real Madrid - £10.3m), as well as full-back Leonardo Spinazzola (AS Roma - free), while as ever, Conte is piling the pressure on the board for further reinforcements.

The Italian tactician is a powerful presence on the touchline and has worked wonders before, such as at Stamford Bridge, but I'm not sure he'll be able to mastermind Napoli to the Scudetto in his first season in charge.

One thing we probably can guarantee with Conte, though, is that there will be drama whatever the eventual outcome.

Atalanta @ 20/1

The 2023/24 Europa League winners deserve a mention purely on last season's magnificent achievement in continental competition, as well as the sterling work done by head coach Gian Piero Gasperini over the last eight years.

However, La Dea finished fourth in Serie A last time out and have never finished in the top two in the club's history, achieving its best-ever placement of third three years in a row between 2019 and 2021.

The Bergamo-based club spend significantly less than other sides competing at the top of the table, and it would take a miracle for them to topple Inter this season.

Serie A Odds

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