Serbia vs Austria Prediction: Close encounter predicted again

Serbia and Austria drew 1-1 on Thursday night, meaning that everything is to play for when the two teams meet again on Sunday (17:00, YouTube). This Nations League play-off will determine which of these two will compete in League A next time around, so there is a lot on the line. 

Below you can find my Serbia vs Austria predictions featuring team news and betting tips. Let’s go! 

Team News

I’d expect both managers to name a similar XI after a combative performance on Thursday. For Serbia manager Dragan Stankovic the absence of Aleksandar Mitrovic has forced him to try and find solutions in his 3-4-1-2 system. Dusan Vlahovic and Luka Jovic partnered each other last time out and are likely to continue again given their pedigree, although Stefan Mitrovic’s performance from the bench could get him a start. 

Fulham’s Sasa Lukic should star in midfield again while interestingly in goal, Al-Ittihad’s Predrag Rajkovic started and looks to be the number one ahead of Djorde Petrovic. I can’t envision many changes from Stankovic. 

For the visitors, Patrick Wimmer will continue at right-back after an impressive display, while star man David Alaba will play at the heart of the defence. 

Michael Gregoritsch opened the scoring with a fantastic effort and he will play in the number 10 role behind Marko Arnautovic, with Christoph Baumgartner and Romano Scmind likely to provide the width. Xaver Schlager is trying to force his way into the midfield but I can’t see Ralf Rangnick making any changes as things stands. 

Serbia vs Austria Odds

Serbia are priced at 15/8 to win this game, while Austria come in as the marginal favourite at 7/5. That gives the away side an implied win probability of 41% as they come into this game in reasonable form. 

A draw can be backed at 21/10, while over 2.5 goals is 1/1 and BTTS is 8/11 having come in during the first leg. Marko Arnautovic is the favourite to score first at 11/2.

Draw after 90 mins @ 21/10

Given the equal strength of these two, I think backing parity is the way to go over 90 minutes. I can’t separate these two and although I would lean towards Austria in usual circumstances, the fact that this second leg will be played in Belgrade makes me even more convinced that we will see another draw. 

These are two good European sides, and Serbia have now drawn their last three outings, against Austria, Denmark and Switzerland. Meanwhile, Austria have drawn their last two games 1-1 and although they dominated the first leg from a statistical perspective, they couldn’t find the win on home soil. I think Serbia will frustrate them again for 90 minutes, with a 1-1 scoreline the most likely outcome. 

Austria to win the tie @ 8/11

Despite what I’ve said about this being an even game over 90 minutes yada yada yada, I do think Austria will win the tie overall. I think they will know that they had the majority of the play during the first leg as they created an xG of 1.80, had 69 per cent possession and wasted four big chances. 

The situation will be slightly tougher playing away from home but over 120 minutes I believe they will get the job done. Serbia will need a massive turnaround in performance levels to squeeze through here, so I’ll back Rangnick’s men to eventually find their way through. 

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