San Lorenzo vs Independiente del Valle Prediction: Ecuadorians to serve up more goals?

San Lorenzo will be looking to secure the first victory of their 2024 Copa Libertadores campaign when they host Independiente del Valle at the Estadio Pedro Bidegain on Thursday (KO, 23:00). The Argentine club are currently bottom of Group F on one point after three games but can go level with their Ecuadorian opponents with a win in Buenos Aires this week.

Below is my San Lorenzo vs Independiente prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

San Lorenzo's Copa Libertadores campaign started with a respectable 1-1 draw at home to group favourites Palmeiras, but they followed that up with defeats away in Ecuador and Uruguay to Independiente (0-2) and Liverpool Montevideo (0-1) respectively.

A third successive loss on Thursday, coupled with a Palmeiras victory over Liverpool Montevideo on the same night, would pretty much rule them out of contention to make the round of 16 and leave them fighting it out for third place and a demotion to the Copa Sudamericana.

Independiente are well-placed to finish in the top two after suffering just one defeat so far, losing 3-2 to Palmeiras last time out in this competition, after drawing with Liverpool Montevideo in Uruguay on the opening day.

Team News

San Lorenzo haven't played since suffering defeat in Montevideo on April 24 so haven't suffered any on-field injuries in that time but defender Gaston Hernandez, who hasn't featured since March 10, doesn't appear to have recovered from his issue.

One notable name in the San Lorenzo squad is ex-Aston Villa and West Ham United midfielder Carlos Sanchez, who was a second-half substitute in April's reverse fixture.

Independiente have played twice since losing to Palmeiras in their last Copa Libertadores group game, beating both Imbabura and Deportivo Cuenca 1-0.

Chelsea-bound wonderkid Kendry Paez scored the winner last time out against Deportivo Cuenca and will be looking to make more headlines across the continent and beyond on Thursday.

Match Odds

San Lorenzo are 1/1 to get their first victory of the group, giving them an implied win probability of 50%, while Independiente are 13/5 (27.8%), and the draw 21/10.

Both teams to score is 11/10 and over 2.5 goals is 6/4.

Both teams to score @ 11/10

Independiente have been involved in more goals (nine - five for, four against) in Group F than any other side so far, with both teams scoring in two of their three games.

San Lorenzo haven't found the net since their opening fixture with Palmeiras, but Thursday represents their first match at home since that 1-1 draw with the Brazilians. They've found it tough away from Argentina, but should find things easier at home in Buenos Aires against a side that drew 1-1 against 10-man Liverpool in their only away contest.

If the hosts have any designs on reaching the Copa Libertadores round of 16, they need to be winning on Thursday. Are they capable of keeping a first clean sheet in the competition, though?

That, perhaps, feels a tad out of reach.

Kendry Paez anytime goalscorer @ 11/2

The 17-year-old isn't allowed to move to Chelsea until the summer of 2025, as he doesn't turn 18 until April next year, so there is still plenty of time left for him to achieve greatness in South America before departing.

Paez bolstered his burgeoning reputation with a goal in the Copa Libertadores against Palmeiras last month, his first in the competition, and he now has three in his last five games, two of them arriving in the Ecuador Liga Pro.

His price of 11/2 to score anytime on Thursday catches the eye as he has already shown his ability to score on foreign land in high-pressure situations, such as when he struck his first international goal for Ecuador in a 2026 World Cup qualifier in Bolivia last October.

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