Roma vs Lazio Prediction: All square in the Derby della Capitale?

Roma and Lazio face off in the first Derby della Capitale of the 2024/25 season on Sunday (19:45, TNT Sports 1), and both clubs will be desperate to start the new year with a victory at the Stadio Olimpico, a ground they share.

Read on for my Roma vs Lazio prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Bryan Cristante remains out injured for Roma who could also be without Turkish full-back Zeki Celik due to illness.

Football Odds

Manuel Lazzari, Matias Vecino, Patric and Pedro are in the Lazio treatment room while Tijjani Noslin is a doubt after missing his side's 1-1 draw with Atalanta on December 28.

Roma vs Lazio Odds

Roma are 6/4 to triumph at the Stadio Olimpico for the fifth successive game, giving I Giallorossi an implied win probability of 40%, while Lazio are 15/8, or a 34.8% chance, despite sitting 15 points above their city rivals.

The draw is priced at 9/4, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 4/5

Goals have been scarce in recent Rome derbies with just four scored across the last five games. Four of those contests ended with just a single goal, Lazio winning 1-0 three times and Roma 1-0 once, while the remaining match finished goalless. Roma took four points from last season's league games against Lazio, holding I Biancocelesti to a 0-0 in November and beating their bitter rivals 1-0 in April, although Lazio did triumph 1-0 in the Coppa Italia in January.

Lazio's Serie A games this season average 3.22 goals per game but two of their last four matches, both against title rivals Napoli (0-1) and Atalanta (1-1), saw two or fewer goals scored, while Roma's league contests only average 2.67 goals per game and they have scored an average of just 0.25 goals a game in their four Serie A encounters against teams in the top five.

Claudio Ranieri's side ground out a 1-1 draw with AC Milan at San Siro last weekend and I think another low-scoring contest is on the cards at the Stadio Olimpico.

Bet Builder - Roma or Draw (Double Chance), Paulo Dybala (ROM) 1+ Shots on Target, Nuno Tavares (LAZ) 2+ Tackles @ 9/5

Roma's poor start to the season saw two head coaches, Daniele De Rossi and Ivan Juric, sacked by the November international break, leaving Ranieri to come in to try and pick up the pieces. After a slow start, failing to win any of his first three matches in charge - albeit they were three difficult fixtures - the Premier League-winning boss has now lost just one of his last six, winning four.

I Giallorossi have picked up four points from six available in Serie A since losing 2-0 at Como on December 15 and will have gained great confidence from last Sunday's 1-1 draw against Milan. They face a tough test this weekend, though, with high-flying Lazio impressing under Marco Baroni, although they were thrashed 6-0 at home by Inter and drew 1-1 in Rome with Atalanta either side of a 2-1 victory at Lecce on December 21 so have just one win to their name from their last three outings.

These two sides faced each other three times in 2023/24, drawing 0-0 before trading 1-0's, so a stalemate on Sunday wouldn't surprise me, and I'm taking the double chance result on Roma, who I would back if I had to choose either to take the three points.

I'm also taking Roma star Paulo Dybala to record at least one shot on target following back-to-back goals against Parma and Milan. He registered three shots on target against the former, bagging a brace in a 5-0 victory at the Stadio Olimpico before netting once and seeing another shot saved at San Siro.

The Argentine has had at least one shot on target in his last four Serie A outings and averages one per game in the competition this season, so looks a good bet to record at least one on Sunday.

Finally, I'm adding in two tackles for Lazio left-back Nuno Tavares who averages 1.6 in the Italian top flight and has recorded at least two in five of his last six league appearances.

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