Republic of Ireland vs Finland Prediction: Boys in Green to consign Eagle-Owls to League C

The bottom two sides in Uefa Nations League Group B2 face off in Dublin on Thursday (19:45), as the Republic of Ireland host Finland at the Aviva Stadium. The visitors are pointless after four games and need a victory this week to avoid relegation to League C, while the Boys in Green just need a point to clinch third spot, although a win would give them a fighting chance of finishing runners-up.

Below is my Republic of Ireland vs Greece prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Republic of Ireland captain Seamus Coleman has been ruled out of his side's Nations League fixtures with Finland and England this month. The 36-year-old sustained a foot injury in September's Nations League opener with England and has failed to feature for club or country since, despite making the matchday squad for three Everton games.

Norwich City defender Shane Duffy and Celtic forward Adam Idah have also withdrawn from Heimir Hallgrimsson's squad, which features the likes of Liverpool goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher, Ipswich Town centre-back Dara O'Shea, and Brighton & Hove Albion striker Evan Ferguson. However, Preston North End's Robbie Brady, who has a goal and assist to his name in this Nations League campaign, is injured.

Wolverhampton Wanderers' Matt Doherty, Everton's Jake O'Brien and Southampton's Liam Manning have all been called up as cover.

Football Odds

Adam Stahl, Tomas Galvez, Fredrik Jensen, Leo Vaisanen, Leo Walta and Topi Keskinen have all been left out of Finland's squad after being involved in last month's camp.

Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky is the headline name in Markku Kanerva's squad, which also features Stade Rennais midfielder Glen Kamara and Minnesota centre-forward Teemu Pukki.

Republic of Ireland vs Finland Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Republic of Ireland vs Finland page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The Republic of Ireland are 4/6 to do the double over their opponents, having beaten Finland 2-1 in Helsinki last month. Those odds give the Boys in Green an implied win probability of 60%, while the visitors are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to get off the mark in the group with a victory in Dublin.

The draw is priced at 13/5, both teams to score at 6/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/4.

Ipswich Town's Sammie Szmodics (21/10) heads the anytime goalscorer market for the hosts while Pukki (18/5) is shortest priced for Finland.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Republic of Ireland & Under 3.5 @ 21/20

This is a must-win match for Finland, who will be relegated to League C unless they take all three points in Dublin on Thursday.

For Ireland, meanwhile, it's at the very least a 'must-not-lose' game. Avoiding defeat would ensure they are not automatically relegated, as third place signals a play-off to keep their League B status.

However, Ireland will want to win to give themselves a chance of finishing second, a position currently occupied by England, who are six points ahead of the Boys in Green and hold the advantage of a superior head-to-head record after beating their close neighbours 2-0 at the Aviva Stadium on September 7.

But if Greece overcome England on the same night Ireland beat Finland, a promotion play-off spot would still be in sight for Hallgrimsson's side, albeit they would need to beat the Three Lions by at least three goals.

Ireland's only points in this campaign so far came against Finland on October 10 as they beat the Eagle-Owls 2-1 in Helsinki thanks to second-half goals from Liam Scales and Brady, rendering Joel Pohjanpalo's 17th-minute effort meaningless.

That's been Ireland's highest-scoring game to this point as they have lost all their other matches 2-0, in Dublin to England and home and away to Greece.

Finland's first three contests all finished with under 3.5 total goals as they kicked off with a 3-0 defeat in Athens to Greece, followed that up with a 2-0 loss at Wembley to England and then went down 2-1 at home to Ireland.

Their most recent match was a 3-1 Helsinki defeat to England, although two of the goals - the visitors' third through Declan Rice and their consolation struck by Arttu Hoskonen - were scored after the 83rd minute.

Interestingly, all eight previous meetings between Ireland and Finland, three of which have come since the start of 2020, have seen three goals or fewer, while Ireland's last 10 games have gone under 3.5 total goals.

Considering all of the above, I'm inclined to back under 3.5 total goals on Thursday, and I'm pairing that selection with a win for the hosts, who should be buoyed by their victory in Helsinki last month.

Finland could make things tough for Ireland in Dublin but like in all their other Nations League games this year, the quality of the opposition should eventually shine through.

Bet Builder - Over 20.5 Total Shots, Nathan Collins (IRL) 1+ Shots, Joel Pohjanpolo (FIN) 1+ Shots @ 11/4

This bet has landed in three of Ireland's four Nations League games so far, only falling short in their 2-0 defeat to Greece in Dublin (18 shots), while the same can be said for Finland, whose 3-0 loss to Greece in Athens (17 shots) was their only match in which they have failed to meet this threshold.

There were 22 shots exchanged between Finland and Ireland in last month's head-to-head in Helsinki, seven in favour of the hosts and 15 for the visitors, who saved most (10) for their second-half comeback.

In a match both will be looking to win, I'm expecting plenty of shots in Dublin on Thursday - at least 21, anyway, which is what we need for the first part of this Bet Builder to land.

Next up, I'm backing Ireland and Brentford centre-back Nathan Collins to take at least one shot himself.

The 23-year-old is yet to register one in this Nations League campaign but averaged a shot per game in the previous one, scoring once, and also averaged a shot per game in last year's Euro 2024 qualification campaign, including a couple against 2022 World Cup finalists France.

Collins is averaging just under a shot per game (0.9) in this season's Premier League and scored his only goal so far in last month's 5-3 victory over his old side Wolves, a match in which he recorded two shots.

Ireland only won five corners across their first three Nations League contests but took as many as that in their last encounter in Greece and if they manage a similar amount on Thursday, I'd expect Collins to get his head - or a foot - to one in an attempt to score.

The third and final leg of this Bet Builder requires Finland striker Pohjanpalo to register one shot. Pohjanpalo has only started once this campaign but that was at home to Ireland last month when he opened the scoring in Helsinki and he should get the chance to breach their defence again from the off this week.

The Venezia forward managed two efforts in that match and has also shot once against each of Greece and England, despite only appearing as a second-half substitute against both.

With Finland needing to win, the 30-year-old is an obvious shout to record at least one attempt at the Aviva Stadium.

Offers

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